So I figured I would start not with the past 18 months of the campaign, but with Friday's debate, which the American people and political pundits saw in two completely different lights. Pundits called it a draw, giving the edge to whichever candidate they were more closely aligned with on the partisan spectrum (except Leslie Sanchez, who remains the most worthless political commentator on any network, and I'm counting Bill O'Reilly and Lou Dobbs in that mix).
The American people, in general, saw the debate as an Obama victory, which isn't bad in what was supposedly McCain's strongest debate format (since it was 70% foreign policy). Independents gave him the edge by almost 20, and were mostly impressed with his answers on the bailout package and how it will affect the middle class along with his calls to refocus international efforts in Afghanistan rather than Iraq. The debate probably didn't move many into the "strong Obama" or "strong McCain" categories, but it did show a few things about the state of the campaign that I think are important to note.
When I watched the debate, I couldn't help paying the most attention to two things: body language and CNN's awesome real-time approval-disapproval dial, which is my favorite TV widget of the cycle. In these debates, with the exception of 2-3 statements that get replayed again and again OR a giant gaffe that came unexpectedly, any of us could probably guess what's being said. The truly important aspects are how the candidates look in comparison to one another and to popular conceptions of what it means to be president, and how the public agrees or disagrees with the ways they are framing the issues.
Obama looked poised. He didn't look confident at first, mainly because he's not good behind a podium. It gives him an opportunity to have a pad of paper, and his professorial background makes him scribble all over it, which shows him as detached and uninterested in what his opponent was saying. He had a better entrance, addressing McCain as "John, it's a pleasure to see you" though McCain said nothing in return (probably thinking they weren't mic'ed yet...whoops).
McCain looked physically uncomfortable on stage, though he is a more natural debater than public speaker, and this format was probably beneficial to him since it gave more time for spontaneity, which he's better at than Obama is (as a function of his knowledge of laws and process, not natural ability). He scored the only discernible laugh-out-loud moment when he asked Jim Lehrer "What, didn't you think I could hear him" after Obama was told to talk to John directly. He still does his creepy smile thing, though, and he has a penchant for looking condescending when Obama talks policy.
As far as the real-time approval ratings went, they weren't very surprising. The most negative term for the debate was "subcommittee", fitting, since this is a change election and that sounds too insider-baseball for 90% of the American public. The best results for McCain came during his personal stories. For Obama, a lot of them came when he said he agreed with John, because it makes him look pragmatic and more bipartisan. He also got good marks when he said "You're wrong John" or "That's not true". Calling McCain out toughens him up in the minds of many undecided voters, and McCain just doesn't respond, which allows the frame of "McCain makes things up" to sink it further and create some doubt in the minds of the "moveable 10" (or the 10% of voters, like my Nana, who actually vote for both Dem and Rep candidates).
There are a couple of moments that stick out. Obama's best play strategically was also his most humanizing moment, and something that anyone with a military connection heard loud and clear. After McCain told a story of a soldier whose mother gave him a bracelet to wear on the campaign trail, he said that he was running to ensure that this soldier "didn't die in vain". Obama shot right back, saying "I have a bracelet too, John", which was unexpected and risky, but his story about a mother who asked him to make sure that no one else had to feel the pain she felt at losing a son was touching and had the right amount of gravitas to answer McCain's frame about "winning in Iraq". It was a great two minutes for those of us who are debaters, because it's what we strive for. Not necessarily winning every position, but making sure our opponents don't win the ones they should.
And McCain should have won this debate. Obama is not a good debater (he was the fourth best Democratic candidate at the debates, after Biden, Clinton, and Edwards, in that order). Right now, McCain needed a game-changing moment, and now has to hope that Sarah Palin does spectacularly at the VP debates. Obama minimized McCain's greatest advantage, his public trust on foreign policy, and came across as reasonable, determined and calm. McCain looked angry, condescending at times, and unwilling to change his mind.
Look for the polling in the next 2-3 days to show Obama leading about 52-43 in all of the major tracking polls (but only pay attention to the three day averages, please! Lower margins of error and they self-correct single-day storylines and blips in the media).
