Protest Prop 8 on Saturday

This Saturday at 11:30 Denver will be one of over 100 cities holding a protest against Proposition 8, California's legalization of discrimination that narrowly passed last week. 

Meet up outside the Colorado Supreme Court building, on Bannock between 14th and 15th, at 11:30 and we'll start the march up 16th Street. 

Photos coming as soon as we finish. 

What a Night

Well, overall, it was a great Election Night.

The Democratic Party fundamentally redrew the electoral map under President-Elect Barack Obama. By winning in Nevada and New Mexico (both by double-digits), Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, and even a district in Nebraska, Obama and VP-elect Joe Biden provided a map changing victory and a true hope for the progressive left to pass some of its policy dreams over the next four years.

In Colorado, this victory was joined by several others. Mark Udall, a true western libertarian liberal in the vein of his father Mo, won a Senate seat by 9 points. Betsy Markey beat conservative reactionary homophobe Marilyn Musgrave in the 13th most conservative Congressional district now held by a Democrat, and did it by 11 points. Jared Polis became the first openly gay freshman male elected to the House. In history.

In individual electoral races, progressives had a good night here in Colorado. 

Ballot-wise, we had a pretty solid night, even though my beloved TABOR-fixing Amendment 59 lost by 6, the same margin by which I thought it would win. We defeated two virulently anti-labor measures, the personhood amendment that would've completely eliminated women's healthcare in Colorado, and several terrible tax policies. We became the first state to ever defeat an anti-affirmative action measure written by Californian xenophobe Ward Connerly.  

Around the country, progressives replaced moderates and moderates replaced conservatives. Hell, in a few places, conservatives Democrats replaced batshit insane Republican reactionaries. We elected a number of women to the legislature, including two new female Senators in New Hampshire and North Carolina. 

In an abject failure for the queer community, Proposition 8 passed in California, a victory for hate and discrimination. California gave rights to chickens and farm animals by passing Prop 4, but couldn't give rights to gays and lesbians. God forbid people should have equal rights. I'll have a longer post about the future of the gay rights/queer movement soon, but it's terribly disappointing to watch a progressive state (CA) defeat a progressive pro-gay Proposition. Let's hope that the State Supreme Court does the right thing and overturns it this next session. 

So all in all, not a bad night. But it could've been better. We still have a long way to go in this country. God bless.

Cliffs Notes Predictions

Senate: Dems gain 7 seats, 1 runoff (but win it in December), net increase of 8

House: Dems gain 38 seats, lose 3, net increase of 35

President: Obama 390, McCain 148.

I'm projecting a good night for the Dems. If anything, I'm overzealous in the presidential race by about 45 EVs, and in the House by 10. I'm alright with a little confidence though.

Election Predictions, part 3 (take two)

Take two. The House of Representatives, continued. 

Isn't this fun? Let's start in New Hampshire and go all the way to Wyoming, shall we? Before we get there I forgot one Dem pickup from the last list:

FL-24 (Kosmas (D) v. Feeney (R-inc)): Tom Feeney has been tied pretty clearly to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and had to release an ad apologizing for this early in this campaign cycle. Recent polls put former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas up by 20. That's a bit optimistic, but she'll win this race by double digits. Kosmas by 12. FLIP DEM. 

NH-02 (Shea-Porter (D-inc) v. Bradley (R)): This is a rematch of the biggest upset in 2006, which Shea-Porter trailed by ten coming into election day and won by 4. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley is a compelling candidate, but New Hampshire has gone VERY blue the past cycle and should hold it's course this election. Shea-Porter by 6. DEM RETENTION.

NJ-03 (Adler (D) v. Myers (R), Saxton (R) retiring): Jim Saxton was a moderate Rep, and this district is ancestrally Republican. Even with a Democratic tide, Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers isn't a terrible candidate, and State Senator John Adler isn't the most exciting guy around. Needless to say, Obama's margins in this district matter, though some solid ticket-splitting will help Myers keep it close. Adler by 3. FLIP DEM. 

NJ-04 (Shulman (D) v. Smith (R-inc)): Chris Smith is very conservative, being the only northeastern Republican to vote against renewing the Voting Rights Act in 2006. He's facing Rabbi Dennis Shulman, who would be the first Rabbi and the first blind person to serve in Congress. This race is a favorite of the blogosphere, but won't come together at the end. Smith by 7. REP RETENTION

NJ-07 (Stender (D) v. Lance (R), Ferguson (R) retiring): Mike Ferguson barely held off State Assemblywoman Linda Stender in 2006, and retired this year rather than face her again. State Senator Leonard Lance is a popular figure, and has kept this race close (someone in his family has served NJ in the legislature every decade since the 1810s). Stender hasn't stopped running for this seat since she lost, though, and should pull it out come election day. Stender by 2. FLIP DEM.

NC-08 (Kissell (D) v. Hayes (R-inc)): Social Studies teacher Larry Kissell lost by 329 votes in 2006 in a race that was on no one's radar. Robin Hayes is  a very wealthy and somewhat popular Representative, but Kissell leads in all recent polling. He'll win this race by 5, another seat that Obama's coattails will bring Democrats in the House. FLIP DEM.

NY-13 (McMahon (D) v. Straniere (R), Fossella (R) retiring): Vito Fossella would've kept this, the only Republican seat in New York City, had he not gotten an DUI on the way to see his mistress and illegitimate daughter last year. But he did do those things, so now he's retiring and Democrat Mike McMahon, a city councilman, will easily beat Robert Straniere, who owns a hot dog vending conglomerate. Straniere hasn't even been endorsed by the Staten Island Republican Party. Not a good sign. McMahon by 22. FLIP DEM.

NY-25 (Maffei (D) v. Sweetland (R), Walsh (R) retiring): Dan Maffei almost beat Rep. Jim Walsh in 2006, and never stopped campaigning. Walsh was down in private polling early this year and decided to retire, and businessman Dale Sweetland never caught fire. Maffei will win this race handily, I bet by 13. FLIP DEM.

NY-26 (Kryzan (D) v. Lee (R), Reynolds (R) retiring): Attorney Alice Kryzan was the surprise primary winner here, as the two other major contenders (Veteran Jon Powers and businessman Jack Davis) beat each other to the point of lunacy. She faces businessman Chris Lee, who has run a solid race in this Republican district. This will be one that the Dems narrowly lose on election night, and kick themselves for 2 years about. Lee by 4. REP RETENTION.

NY-29 (Massa (D) v. Kuhl (R-inc)): Shotgun Randy Kuhl got his nickname by pointing a gun at his wife during a dinner party in the 1980s. The good people of New York apparently didn't think this was a character flaw, and elected him to the House. Veteran Eric Massa has run a solid campaign, and will take this seat, especially as Kuhl has said some incendiary stuff the past few weeks (notably, that Democrats want Americans to "suffer" if elected). Massa by 3. FLIP DEM.

OH-01 (Dreihaus (D) v. Chabot (R-inc)): Steve Chabot is a solid moderate Republican, and has fended off challenges from solid candidates in the past. State Rep. Steve Dreihaus, a West Point graduate, provides him his stiffest challenge yet. Chabot's age (he's 81) and Dreihaus' turnout operation in this district, which is 26% black, should push him over the top. Dreihaus by 1. FLIP DEM.

OH-02 (Wulsin (D) v. Schmidt (R-inc)): Mean Jean Schmidt is just about as crazy as can be, calling veteran Jack Murtha a "coward" on the floor of the House in her first ever speech to the body. She'll never win comfortably in this R+13 district, but should win this race against second-time challenger Dr. Vic Wulsin. Wulsin's just not as compelling a candidate as could be found here, and doesn't sport very high favorable ratings (though they're still better than Schmidt's). Mean Jean by 4. REP RETENTION.

OH-07 (Neuhardt (D) v. Austria (R), Hobson (R) retiring): State Senator Steve Austria is the Republican's single best recruit of the cycle, and his moderate image provides him a good chance of winning this Republican-leaning district and holding it for a very long time if he wants. Democrat Sharon Neuhardt has run a spirited race though, and will keep this one fairly close. Austria by 8. REP RETENTION.

OH-14 (O'Neill (D) v. LaTourette (R-inc)): Steve LaTourette has held this Cleveland-area district comfortably for the past few terms, but Judge Bill O'Neill has given him a run for his money this cycle. This is a seat that could flip in a major wave election, but I think O'Neill falls short (though ends up closer than many would think). LaTourette by 6. REP RETENTION.

OH-15 (Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R), Pryce (R) retiring): Deborah Pryce is retiring, and County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy has led State Senator Steve Stivers (try saying that three times fast) in all recent polling. Kilroy has high unfavorables, but if she wins this go-round she can get her district shored-up in the next round of redistricting in 2010, when Ohio will lose a seat. Kilroy by 5. FLIP DEM.

OH-16 (Boccieri (D) v. Schuring (R), Regula (R) retiring): Ralph Regula is incredibly popular in this tossup district, but State Senator John Boccieri has cast a very moderate profile (anti-abortion and pro-labor), whereas State Rep. Kirk Schuring has been lambasted by the right for voting for a number of tax increases in the legislature. Boccieri will win this race by 6, though it was originally supposed to be more competitive. FLIP DEM.

OR-05 (Schrader (D) v. Erikson (R), Hooley (D) retiring): Darlene Hooley almost always underperformed in this district, and this year decided to call it a career. Gubernatorial aide Kurt Schrader consolidated Democratic support, while failed Gubernatorial candidate Mike Erikson dealt with a nasty primary and revelations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion several years ago. This one won't be close. Schrader by 11. DEM RETENTION.

PA-03 (Dahlkemper (D) v. English (R-inc)): "Philly the Hutt" as he's called, due to his striking resemblance to one Jabba the Hutt, is in for the race of his career against Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper. Dahlkemper's personal opposition to abortion has allowed her to tack right in this socially-conservative PA district, and she'll win in what three months ago would've been considered a surprising upset. Even English's own polls have him down near 43%. Not a good place to be. Dahlkemper by 5. FLIP DEM.

PA-04 (Altmire (D-inc) v. Hart (R)): This is my grandparent's district, and my Republican grandma sums up Jason Altmire well: "he just kinda gets stuff done and doesn't focus on crazy social issue stuff." Altmire is a conservative Dem, and took over for ideologue Melissa Hart, who's back for another go round. It seems Altmire has consolidated support in Allegheny County though, and should win by 10. DEM RETENTION. 

PA-12 (Murtha (D-inc) v. Russell (R)): Jack Murtha recently called his district racist, which apparently people don't like very much. He's now in a very competitive race with pilot Bill Russell, but I think Murtha holds on, if by the skin of his teeth (compared to other cycles). Murtha by 9. DEM RETENTION.

SC-01 (Ketner (D) v. Brown (R-inc)): Henry Brown is very conservative, and South Carolina tends to like people like that. But he's facing a stiff challenge from the most unlikely source: an openly gay, progressive woman in Linda Ketner. She's poured $700,000 of her own money into this race, and polling shows her down 5. I'd love to see her pull this out, but I think Brown hangs on by 3. REP RETENTION.

SC-02 (Miller (D) v. Wilson (R-inc)): In successive years, Joe Wilson was named the nicest member of Congress and the meanest member of Congress. I don't quite know how that happens, but Iraq veteran Rob Miller is challenging him in this very red district. Miller is a good candidate, but he's still too liberal for this district. Wilson by 11. REP RETENTION. 

TX-07 (Skelly (D) v. Culberson (R-inc)): John Culberson isn't terribly popular in this super Republican district, and wind power executive Michael Skelly has been a prolific fundraiser and solid campaigner. He's not going to win this race, but his challenge is helping turn Texas just a little bit bluer it would seem. Culberson by 7. REP RETENTION.

TX-10 (Doherty (D) v. McCaul (R-inc)): This is upset special number 2. Larry Joe Doherty is a judge on TV's "Texas Justice" and has been running hard for this seat for over a year. Mike McCaul is very conservative, but hasn't quite hit a note with his district, seeing as he's never gotten more than 57% here. I'm going to call a crazy one: Doherty by less than 1. FLIP DEM.

VA-02 (Nye (D) v. Drake (R-inc)): Thelma Drake held off a challenge from Phil Kellam, and Glenn Nye is the next one up to come shockingly close to beating Ms. Drake but not quite getting there. Drake is never going to win by many in this district, but Nye's campaign hasn't had the outreach outside of Norfolk to make this one a victory. Drake by 3. REP RETENTION.

VA-05 (Perriello (D) v. Goode (R-inc)): Final upset special. Dem Tom Perriello is a Yale-educated lawyer, and he's going up against former Democrat Virgil Goode, who last was seen railing against Rep. Keith Ellison being sworn in on the Koran in 2006 (Ellison is the US' first Muslim Representative). This district combines super-liberal Charlottesville and super conservative Southern Virginia farm country. Perriello is going to win this one in a surprising squeaker, by less than 1. FLIP DEM. 

VA-10 (Feder (D) v. Wolf (R-inc)): This is another rematch, but unlike most of them it won't be close. Judy Feder has proven to be a weak candidate, and longtime Rep. Frank Wolf is pretty beloved in this district, even after a campaign aide beat up a Feder aide with a cane last week. Wolf holds this seat by 12. REP RETENTION.

VA-11 (Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R), Davis (R) retiring): Tom Davis is one of the really good Republicans in the House, and wanted to step up to the Senate this year but was pushed aside for the more conservative Jim Gilmore by decisions by the State rules committee of the Republican party. Fairfax County Supervisor Gerry Connolly is a moderate Dem, and is facing virtual unknown businessman Keith Fimian. This is a clean pickup for the Dems, by about 11. FLIP DEM.

WA-08 (Burner (D) v. Reichert (R-inc)): Dave Reichert is a local Seattle celebrity, widely credited for capturing the Green River Killer in the 1990s. Darcy Burner is a Microsoft Executive  who narrowly lost this race in 2006. The Seattle press and political establishment is behind Reichert, but Burner has wide support in the blogosphere. This time, I think she narrowly wins this race. Burner by 2. FLIP DEM. 

WI-08 (Kagen (D-inc) v. Gard (R)): This race should be very close. Dr. Steve Kagen has been incendiary while in the House, cussing out VP Dick Cheney and generally being difficult for Republicans to get along with. John Gard is the minority leader in the Wisconsin House, and is a relatively young, amiable conservative. This year though, he's not going to stand a chance against Kagen, who will win by 7. DEM RETENTION. 

WV-02 (Barth (D) v. Capito (R-inc)): There were high hopes for this race when Sen. Robert Byrd's top aide, Anne Barth, declared for the seat currently held by moderate Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Barth hasn't shown a lot of flair at describing her differences with Capito, and West Virginia is one state that Obama doesn't have many coattails. She'll need a lot of ticket splitters to put her over the top, and I don't see it happening. Capito by 8. REP RETENTION.

WY-AL (Trauner (D) v. Lummis (R), Cubin (R) retiring): Gary Trauner will be a great representative if the people of Wyoming ever get over their Republican knee-jerk voting. Cynthia Lummis is a former State Treasurer, and is a compelling candidate as a conservative woman in this state that is seeing another conservative woman (albeit and unpopular one, Barb Cubin), retire. I want to call this race for Trauner, but I don't think he overcomes  the demographic problems inherent for a Wyoming Democrat. Lummis by 3, by boy would I like to be wrong on this one. REP RETENTION. 

Election Predictions, part 3 (take one)

The House of Representatives.

The House is notoriously hard to predict, as many races fall outside of general norms for the election. Local concerns, big personalities...these manifest themselves in House races far more than in state and national races.

That being said, I'm ready to make a number of House predictions. 

First, the Democrats who will lose their seats:

FL-16 (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Tom Rooney (R)). I like Tom Rooney. I'm a Steelers fan, so that family name does a lot for me. I dislike Tim Mahoney, even before he had lots of affairs. Rooney wins by 20. He'll be a solid, moderate GOP rep for this district (which there need to be more of frankly).  FLIP REP

TX-22 (Nick Lampson (D-inc) vs. Paul Olson (R)): This district is just too Republican, and no amount of Lampson's posturing to the right will overcome it's nature. Olson wins this by 5. FLIP REP

PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) vs. Lou Barletta (R)). This is the one D seat semi-upset I'll call. Kanjorski is a corrupt incumbent who's surprised by a strong challenger. Barletta's anti-immigration rants resonate in this rural PA district. Barletta by 2. FLIP REP

Dems lose 3. Not bad, actually, if we look at historic performance in any election, let alone a wave election.

I believe in commenting on everything. This will be long, but fun. These are ALL SEATS, not just those that will flip Dem, from Alaska to Nevada.

AK-AL (Berkowitz (D) v. Young (R-inc.): Berko by 10. Young isn't liked, and Berko will have a hard time holding this seat in 2010, but it's a sweet win at the moment. FLIP DEM

AL-02 (Bright (D) v. Love (R); Everett (R) retiring): Bright by 2. Bobby Bright is very conservative, and will challenge Heath Shuler for most conservative rep in the House. He fits this district well, and Love's primary challenger, Harri Anne Smith (R), endorsed Bright after the primary. This'll be close, but Bright pulls it out.  FLIP DEM

AL-05 (Griffin (D) v. Parker (R); Cramer (D) retiring): Bud Cramer is a conservative Dem. So is Parker Griffin. He'll beat businessman Wayne Parker by a nose to hold this district. DEM RETENTION

AZ-01 (Kilpatrick (D) v. Hay (R); Renzi (R) retiring): Rick Renzi is a corrupt bastard, and Mining Commissioner Sydney Hay is VERY conservative. Democrat Ann Kilpatrick takes this seat by 9. FLIP DEM

AZ-03 (Lord (D) v. Shaddegg (R-inc)): John Shaddegg is a conservative powerhouse in the House. Attorney Bob Lord will give him a run, but come up just short. If this seat flips, it's a 40+ gain in the House on Nov. 4. As of now, Shaddegg holds by 3. REP RETENTION

CA-04 (Brown (D) v. McClintock (R); Doolittle (R) retiring): John Doolittle is also corrupt, and Tom McClintock lives 400 miles south of this district, way down in Thousand Oaks, CA. Charlie Brown lost by 3 last time around, and the retired Colonel will put it away this time, as he leads in all recent polling. Brown by 4. FLIP DEM

CA-46 (Cook (D) v. Rohrbacher (R-inc)): Debbie Cook is really attractive (physically and in policy) but has raised little money and Dana Rohrbacher will hold his seat, winning by 9. REP RETENTION

CA-50 (Liebham (D) v. Bilbray (R-inc)): Brian Bilbray barely beat Dem. Francine Busby in a special election in 2006, and will barely hold his seat again, after an aggressive challenge by attorney and veteran Nick Liebham. This one will be closer than people think though; Bilbray by 3. REP RETENTION.

CO-04 (Markey (D) v. Musgrave (R-inc)): This will be a sweet victory. Homophobe Marilyn Musgrave has barely held this seat against weak opponents, and Dem Betsy Markey has run a great campaign. She'll win by double digits this year, and I'll be glad to see a sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment vanish into obscurity. Markey by 11. FLIP DEM.

CT-04 (Himes (D) v. Shays (R-inc)): This is a race I got wrong in 06, thinking Diane Farrell would boot out Chris Shays, who is now the last Republican House member in the Northeast. Rhodes Scholar and Nonprofit director Jim Himes will do what Diane couldn't. Himes by 2. FLIP DEM. 

FL-08 (Grayson (D) v. Keller (R-inc)): Ric Keller isn't a bad guy or a bad representative, people in FL-08 just don't like him that much. He has underperformed every year, and attorney Alan Grayson is running one of the 3 best campaigns of the cycle. He'll pull this out by 2. FLIP DEM.

FL-13 (Jennings (D) v. Buchanan (R-inc)): This is a race between two unpopular pols. Jennings is seen as a sore loser, suing after she lost by 369 votes in 2006, and Jennings is a wealthy used car salesman, and well, we know how popular they are. Buchanan holds his seat by 8. REP RETENTION. 

FL-18 (Taddeo (D) v. Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc)): Annette Taddeo is a great candidate running against a popular incumbent in a hard district. She should be the rep here, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will win again, albeit by a narrower margin. This is one race I'd love to be wrong in. Ros-Lehtinen by 6. REP RETENTION.

FL-21 (Martinez (D) v. L. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): The Diaz-Balart's are the only brothers in Congress. This year, both will lose. Lincoln by 6 in this race against Raul Martinez, longtime mayor of Hialeah. FLIP DEM.

FL-25 (Garcia (D) v. R. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): See above. Raul will lose to Joe Garcia. This makes Ileana Ros-Lehtinen the only non-white Republican in Congress. Garcia by 1: this is one of the closest races on election night. FLIP DEM.

GA-08 (Marshall (D-inc) v. Goddard (R)): Rick Goddard is a better ideological fit for this R+8 district, but Marshall's incumbency and Obama's strong showing will give him two more years. Marshall by 7. DEM RETENTION.

IA-04 (Greenwald (D) v. Latham (R-inc)): This is a reach pick for me. Tom Latham is very popular, but Obama runs very strong in Iowa (up 17 recently) and I think community organizer Becky Greenwald outperforms her polling. Greenwald by 2 in one of my upset specials. FLIP DEM.

ID-01 (Minnick (D) v. Sali (R-inc)): Bill Sali is not a bright man. The other Representative from Idaho, Mike Simpson, can't stand him, and Democrat Walt Minnick is a smart, conservative Dem. This will be the most Republican district (+19!) to flip election night. Dems were disappointed when Larry Grant lost this seat by 4 in 2006, Minnick will flip that result this year and win by 4. He probably won't hold the seat more than one term though. FLIP DEM.

IL-06 (Morganthaler (D) v. Roskam (R-inc)): No news here. Roskam shouldn't have won this race in 2006, but he did, and he'll hold this seat for a long time. Roskam by 14. REP RETENTION.

IL-10 (Seals (D) v. Kirk (R-inc)): Mark Kirk is one of the most liberal representatives in the House. That won't prevent Dan Seals, a veteran and attorney, from riding Obama's coattails to the House, and holding this seat for a VERY long time. Seals by 5. FLIP DEM.

IL-11 (Halvorsen (D) v. Ozinga (R), Weller (R-inc) retiring): Debbie Halvorsen is the majority leader of the IL House and is quite popular in her district. Marty Ozinga is a CEO in the concrete industry, and while a good candidate, can't overcome the swing nature of this district in an Obama election year. In a neutral year, I'd go out on a limb and say Ozinga wins. Not this year. Halvorsen by 10. FLIP DEM.

IL-18 (Callaghan (D) v. Schock (R), LaHood (R) retiring): Ray LaHood was a great Representative for central IL for the past 20 years. He's reasonable voice in the House that will be missed. 26 year old Aaron Schock is bat-shit insane. Too bad Dem Colleen Callaghan isn't a better candidate. Schock by a closer than expected margin, 6 points. REP RETENTION.

IN-03 (Montagano (D) v. Souder (R)): Mark Souder is not terribly popular in this blood-red district, and 28 year old attorney Mike Montagano has caught his sleeping. Souder will win, just barely, but if Montagano pulls this one out, expect Dems to win more than 40 seats on election night (like the Lord race in AZ-03). Souder by 4. REP RETENTION.

IN-09 (Hill (D-inc) v. Sodrel (R)): Rep. Baron Hill and trucking magnate Mike Sodrel have faced off in 3 straight elections, trading off this seat every two years. This year is different. Hill has a commanding lead, and Obama's push for Indiana means he wins by 13. DEM RETENTION.

KS-02 (Boyda (D-inc) v. Jenkins (R)): Lynn Jenkins is a very good candidate. Republicans just underestimated how solid a Representative Nancy Boyda would be. She won in an upset in 2006 by 3, and she'll win by double that this time. Boyda by 6. DEM RETENTION.

KY-02 (Boswell (D) v. Guthrie (R), Lucas (R) retiring): Dem David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie, two old friends in the state legislature, face off in this open seat. Boswell had a chance until the national parties got engaged. Now, Guthrie should win comfortably, I'm guessing by 7. REP RETENTION.

LA-04 (Carmouche (D) v. Fleming (R), Baker (R) retiring): Paul Carmouche is VERY conservative. In 40 of the states in the US he'd be a Republican. But in LA he's a Democrat, and he's going to have no trouble fending off Republican John Fleming for this rural district. Carmouche by 6 (in a Dec. 6 runoff, he won't crack 50% on Nov. 4). FLIP DEM. 

LA-06 (Cayazoux (D-inc) v. Cassidy (R) and Jackson (I)): Don Cayazoux is the perfect fit for this district, but State Senator Bill Cassidy wants to take back this Republican seat after businessman Woody Jenkins couldn't seal the deal in the May special election. He's assisted by Dem-turned-Independent Michael Jackson (no relation to the molester) who is polling in the high single digits. National prognosticators are undervaluing Cayazoux, he wins by 10. DEM RETENTION.

MD-06 (Kratovil (R) v. Harris (R), Gilcrest (R) retiring): Wayne Gilcrest, the most liberal Republican in the House, lost to conservative Andy Harris in a primary, and proceeded to endorse both Frank Kravotil, his Democratic opponent, and Barack Obama. Gilcrest is very popular in this eastern shore district, but Kratovil has a tough road to hoe. I'm tempted to give a nod to Frank, but I think Andy Harris just barely holds on. Harris by 2. REP RETENTION.

MI-07 (Schauer (D) v. Wahlberg (R-inc)): Freshman Rep. Tim Wahlberg beat one of the nicest men in the legislature in a primary in 2006, and he's far too conservative for this district. State Rep. Mark Schauer has led in every poll for 5 months. This one goes to Schauer by 7. FLIP DEM.

MI-09 (Peters (D) v. Knollenberg (R-inc)): Joe Knollenberg is a nice guy, but he's constantly underperforming this district. Honestly, Peters and Knollenberg will vote the same way on 90% of bills, leadership races excluded. Peters is leading in most public polls though, and after Joe won by only 6 last election against an opponent with no money, he's losing this race. Peters by 5. FLIP DEM.

MN-03 (Madia (D) v. Paulsen (R), Ramstad (R) retiring): Jim Ramstad is incredibly popular here, but State Rep. Erik Paulsen hasn't consolidated his support. Attorney and Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia beat State Sen. Terri Bonoff in a nail-biter primary race, and will probably win this seat by a very tight margin. Expect this to be a close race, with Madia winning by 1.5. FLIP DEM. 

MN-06 (Tinklenberg (D) v. Bachmann (R-inc)): Elwyn Tinklenberg has a great name that probably handicaps him politically. Michele Bachmann, though, is fucking nuts. She recently called for a McCarthy-esque inquisition of sitting US legislators to see who were "pro-America" and who were "anti-America." Yay fascism. Tinklenberg has no business winning this race, but gets the nod as luckiest Democrat in the country, and wins by 3. FLIP DEM.

MO-06 (Baker (D) v. Luetkemeyer (R), Hulshof (R) retiring): Kenny Hulshof is running a quixotic losing race for Governor against Jay Nixon, and leaves his seat open. It's a contrast of a pretty liberal woman, Judy Baker, against a very conservative man, Blaine Luetkemeyer. This is another one that I'm calling against the general grain; I think Judy Baker pulls this one out, and becomes a proud rural progressive voice in the US House. Baker by 1. FLIP DEM.

MO-09 (Barnes (D) v. Graves (R-inc)): This was supposed to be Dems #1 pick up in the early season of House races. Kay Barnes is a popular former mayor of Kansas City, and Sam Graves is an underwhelming Republican. Graves used a gay-baiting and race-baiting ad that seems to have worked, and he's comfortably ahead. Graves by 10. REP RETENTION.

NE-02 (Esch (D) v. Terry (R-inc)): Lee Terry is very scared of this race, a repeat from 2006. He's flaunting so-called "Obama-Terry" voters, while Democrat Jim Esch is taking advantage of new voter registration giving Dems an advantage over Republicans for the first time ever in this district. This one will be close, but I give the edge to the incumbent. I'd like to be wrong here though. Terry by 3. REP RETENTION.

NM-01 (Heinrich (D) v. White (R), Wilson (R) retiring): Heather Wilson lost her primary for the Senate seat in NM that Tom Udall is poised to win by 20, which leaves a very competitive open seat. Sheriff Darren White is one of the Republicans' best recruits, but Albuquerque City Councilmember Martin Heinrich has run a great race and leads in recent polling. In a neutral year, White wins this race by 5. This year, though, Heinrich by 4, and he'll hold this seat for a while. FLIP DEM.

NM-02 (Teague (D) v. Tinsley (R), Pearce (R) retiring): Steve Pearce is losing a Senate race at the moment, which leaves two oilmen, Harry Teague and Ed Tinsley, to vie for his old seat. In any other year, Ed wins this race by at least 10 points. With flagging funding though he had to pull his advertising with 2 weeks to go, and Teague has generous backing from the DCCC, with a conservative profile to boot. Teague by 3, in what should be considered a pretty big upset. FLIP DEM (this also gives NM an all-Dem congressional delegation).

NV-02 (Derby (D) v. Heller (R-inc)): This is a repeat of 2006. NV-02 is quite conservative, but University of Nevada regent Jill Derby ran a tough race against attorney Dean Heller. They're back for another go-round, and most polling puts Heller under 50%. Heller has the advantage, but I'm going to call this for Derby by 1. FLIP DEM.

NV-03 (Titus (D) v. Porter (R-inc)): Dina Titus lost a close race for Governor in 2006 (a decision many Nevadans are regretting, as Gov. Jim Gibbons has high disapproval ratings), but is back to take on Rep. Jon Porter after DA Robert Daskas dropped out in early 2008. Titus leads in most polling, and Porter hasn't been above 45% in six months. Titus by 5, with the House gaining a very progressive western woman. FLIP DEM.

Election Predictions, part 2

I almost forgot about how much I like predictions. It really started in 2006, when I called Dems winning 32 new House members (I was wrong on four races: I thought Lois Murphy would win in PA-06 and Diane Farrell in CT-04, and didn't see Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Carol Shea-Porter in NH-02). 

But we'll get to the House later, because that's a can of crazy that I can't quite deal with just yet. Final predictions will probably be up today, but maybe tomorrow. 

For now, the Senate.

I currently predict Democrats picking up 7 Senate seats, with 1 going to a run-off and 2 others falling just short. We're going to go in descending order, and I'm going to call percentages as well.

1/ Virginia (Open, Warner-R retiring): Ever since Mark Warner dropped out of the Pres race and decided to run for Senate, this has been a done deal. The question becomes how much he helps Obama and downticket Dem house races (02, 04, 05, and 11). Republican presidential also-ran Jim Gilmore is the sacrificial lamb.

Final: Warner 63, Gilmore 36

2/ Alaska (Stevens-R): Good ol' Ted Stevens was just convicted of 7 felonies the other day, so he's not going to win reelection. The question is how many Republicans still vote for the man who has the Anchorage Int'l Airport named after him. The answer: far too many. Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, will join the Democratic majority in the Senate. 

Final: Begich 60, Stevens 40

3/ New Mexico (Open, Domeinici-R retiring): New Mexico has 4 open seat races, since all 3 house members vied for the Senate seat that Pete D. is leaving after 36 years. Tom Udall is going to win this race, as Steve Pearce hasn't shown any appeal to moderate voters around the state, and may even lose his home congressional district (the 2nd). 

Final: Udall 59, Pearce 39

4/ Colorado (Open, Allard-R retiring): Wayne Allard would have lost this seat had he run for a third term, so he's bowing out gracefully and letting Rep. Mark Udall and former Rep. Bob Schaffer duke it out. This has been one of the nastiest races in the country, but it's broken fast for Udall in the past month after he posted modest 3-6 point leads for most of the year. This one won't be the nailbiter everyone though it would be. 

Final: Udall 56, Schaffer 43

5/ New Hampshire (Sununu-R): John Sununu won in 2002 after committing voter fraud (his top strategy guy just got out of jail after doing 4 years for telephone fraud, actually), and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is back for round 2. She's a good fit for NH, which has always been the most conservative Northeastern state, and Sununu has been much more partisan than his revered father (who was Bush I's Chief of Staff). This one has tightened a bit, but Shaheen will win.

Final: Shaheen 53, Sununu 44

6/ Oregon (Smith-R): There are 3 Udalls on the ballot (Gordon is Tom and Mark's cousin), but they won't go 3 for 3 this cycle. Smith is the exact ideological center of the House, but he's still too conservative for Oregon. He has rushed to the center this election, but Barack Obama himself just cut an add for State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who upon election will be one of the most progressive members of the Senate. Merkley holds a commanding 20-point lead among the 40% of Oregonians who have already voted, which means Smith needs to win 62% of the outstanding vote. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Final: Merkley 52, Smith 43, Brownlow 4 (this might be too conservative...Merkley could easily win by 12)

7/ North Carolina (Dole-R): This race has gotten nasty. Incumbent Elizabeth Dole has recently called her challenger, State Senator Kay Hagan, godless for a recent fundraiser hosted by a prominent athiest. Hagan's response was swift and harsh. Hagan has run the best Senate campaign of the cycle in my opinion, and has made the race a referenda on "absentee Elizabeth", who still doesn't have a North Carolina residence. This race is going to be close, but Hagan squeaks it out. 

Final: Hagan 49, Dole 47, Cole 4

8/ Georgia (Chambliss-R): Saxby Chambliss is my second least favorite member of the Senate (after crazy Jim Inhofe). His abhorrent campaign against war hero Max Cleland in 2002 (where he morphed the triple-amputee Cleland into a photo of Osama bin Laden) has gotten him a special place in hell, in my opinion. This race was on NO ONE'S radar until Chambliss voted for the bailout, after which State Rep. Jim Martin began pulling even. Georgia law requires a candidate to get 50% of the vote, which I don't think either will at the moment. I think Chambliss finishes narrowly ahead, but we'll go to a December 4 runoff, which will see a myriad of operatives on both sides descend on Georgia. Martin will win that race.

Final: Chambliss 47, Martin 46, Buckley 6

9/ Minnesota (Coleman-R): This race is sad for me. On one hand, I think the Senate needs moderate Republicans, and Sen. Norm Coleman is one of the 4-5 most moderate of them. On the other, Minnesota deserves a progressive Senator in former Sen. Paul Wellstone's old seat. Comedian Al Franken has been a polarizing candidate, and I think would make a solid Senator but wouldn't be able to hold the seat for more than one term. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkely will get over 10% of the vote, more from Franken than Coleman, and it'll push Coleman just barely over the top. I bet Rep. Betty McCullom is regretting not running for this seat, which she would have won by 10 points easily.

Final: Coleman 43, Franken 40, Barkely 15

10/ Louisiana (Landreiu-D): This was the best Republican pick up opportunity when the cycle started. Landreiu is very moderate, but still too liberal for Louisiana's white population, and has never won by large margins in her prior two races. She's facing recent Republican John Neely Kennedy, who just changed parties in 2007 to run against her (he's the State Treasurer). Kennedy has underwhelmed as a candidate and Landreiu has receieved a ton of Republican endorsements. She'll win this race pretty easily. 

Final: Landreiu 52, Kennedy 46

11/ Kentucky (McConnell-R): This race should never have been close. Mitch McConnell is the minority leader of the Senate, and businessman Bruce Lunsford emerged from a Democratic primary with little support; after all, he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher for Gov. in 2003 and lost a primary for Governor in 2007 to current Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford pulled a Jim Martin after McConnell voted for the bailout though, and has closed the gap to within 6 points. That will be where the final tally comes down, methinks. 

Final: McConnell 53, Lunsford 46

12/ Mississippi (Wicker-R): Democrats saw a chance at this seat when appointed Senator Roger Wicker filled Trent Lott's old seat, and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove stepped up to the plate to challenge him. Musgrove is fairly unpopular in MS though (he lost reelection in 2002 to Haley Barbour), and Wicker has consolidated a high amount of the state's white voters, with which he's running even with John McCain. Musgrove needs to run 10 points ahead of Obama if he wants to win the state, though increased black turnout will keep it close.

Final: Wicker 53, Musgrove 47

So that's a roundup of the closest races come election day. Democrats will hold 56 seats, Independents who caucus with the Dems 2, and Republicans will hold 42. 

After the election, though, expect Joe Lieberman (I-CT) to be courted heavily by the Republicans after Democrats remove him as chair of the Homeland Security Committee. And expect Democrats  to try and convince current Republicans Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and  Arlen Specter (R-PA) to switch parties. I suspect Lieberman will leave the caucus, but that Dems won't get any party switches, but stranger things have happened.

Election Predictions, part 1

Alright, it's time for some predictions about Tuesday night. But before we go there, let's start with a little history.

I've been on this campaign for almost 20 of the 21 months it's been going. I started out supporting New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who I thought was the most thoughtful and experienced of the candidates, but who soon disappointed me by not articulating anything resembling a coherent position on almost any issue. That fairytale lasted about 2 months. 

I then got over my overwhelming dislike of Hillary Clinton after watching her throughout the debates and stump speeches. I've talked about my perceptual shift toward Hillary before, so I won't go there again, but needless to say I felt something about her that led me to believe she'd make a great president. I still feel that today. 

The day Hillary dropped out, I sent a check to Barack Obama and haven't looked back. His choice of Joe Biden (of whom I'm a HUGE fan, I mean huge) was a defining moment for me. I trust his judgment and I think he'll make a damn fine president.

Tuesday night, at 8:55 est, Barack Obama will be declared the president-elect of the United States.

I'm not normally overconfident about these things. In 2004, I thought Kerry was going to lose, and I called Bush in 2000 as well (granted I was a young Republican back then, but I digress). I believe not only that Obama will win this election, but that he'll win it handily. I think a landslide is anything over 350 electoral votes, and right now I'll project that Obama wins at least that many.

How you ask?

There are a group of SAFE democratic states. They are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,  Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. These states add up to 190 electoral votes. Only 80 more to go. 

The "normal" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire will all vote for Obama by 10+ points. Of that group, Michigan and Iowa will approach 60% voting for Obama. There are 74 more electoral votes, putting us at 264. 6 more votes to go.

If I am predicting the next largest margin for Obama, I'll go with Virginia, which I think Obama will win by 9. There's 13 more votes, and Obama has won the election with 277 electoral votes. 

But we're not done. Oh no. The next states are those that Obama will win by 4 to 8 points. Here we have Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and the great state of Colorado. This brings us to 338 electoral votes.

Now you might think I'm getting greedy. Nope. We still have a couple more. 

Obama will win several "red" states by between .1 and 3 points. They are: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Yes, you read that right. Georgia. I believe that Obama will win the state by an almost miniscule margin, due to the high numbers of black voters turning out for the first time and a slight overperformance in white voters than John Kerry (who got 29% of the white vote in 2004). This gets Obama to 390 electoral votes. That's his final tally, I think, come the end of the night. 

Next come the states that McCain will narrowly squeak out, from .1 to 3 percent. They are: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska-2 (which awards EVs by congressional district in addition to the statewide winner). This is 17 EVs.

Then states he'll win by between 4 and 9 points. South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, and somewhat surprisingly, Mississippi (36% of registered voters are black, and breaking 92-3 to Obama at the moment). This takes us to 37 electoral votes.

McCain has a few states he'll win with between 10 and 20 points. Those are: South Carolina, Nebraska (the rest), Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Louisiana. He's now got 101 votes. 

Now for the McCain blowout states, any with 20 or more points. These are the really red states: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Not to mention Oklahoma, which he should win by 35 (his biggest margin of the night, I think, just beating out ID and UT). 

This gives McCain 148 electoral votes.

So my end of the night prediction is: Obama/Biden 390, McCain/Palin 148. 

Thoughts?

2008 Colorado Ballot Guide

Well the time has come...

I've spent the past 2 months at work looking through the ballot initiatives in Colorado this year (started at 18, now it's 14, more on that later), and I've decided that I would send out a voter guide for some of us progressively-minded folks. I'm not saying that you shouldn't go and do some research on these, but the Colorado Blue Book is the size of "The Old Man and the Sea" (actually, 10 words shorter), and so I thought I would do some of the hard work for you. 

So here it is, with some snarky analysis to boot:

A-46: NO. This is the so-called Civil Rights Amendment, which would completely eliminate any racial or gender preferencing by a governmental entity. Now, We might not agree on how affirmative action currently works, but getting rid of all preferences would be disastrous to minority and women-owned business, along with scholarship programs for at-risk youth and even government contracts with Native American tribes. It's bad news, and has been a disaster in other states (CA and MI, for example).

A-47: NO. This is the "Right to Work" measure, or as I like to call it "Right to Work for Less." Now, I'm not the biggest fan of unions out there, as you may know, but I do think unions serve a valuable societal function. This amendment would encourage "freeloading", or, the ability of a non-union employee to get the same benefits of those in the union without paying dues. It's simply unfair. The Colorado business community agrees, and has given $3 million to fight it. When business is taking the unions' side, you know this is dangerous.

A-48: NO. "Personhood". This is the most vague and dangerous amendment on the ballot. Period. Now, I'm pro-choice, and many of my friends are pro-life, but I think we can all agree that defining any fertilized egg as a person is terrible public policy. This would make paramedics liable for harm to any egg when treating women, it would ban chemotherapy for pregnant women who have cancer, and it would ban abortion in all cases, even to save a mother's life. On the plus side, I could create 40 "test-tube babies" and keep them in a vault, all the time collecting child tax credits. 

A-49: NO. This measure would eliminate the right of public employees (police, firefighters, teachers, etc.) to voluntarily send money from their paychecks to organizations. It's just a fundamental violation of a person's first amendment right (much like 54...which I'll get to soon). 49 is part of 3 amendments (47, 49 and 54) that are being jointly opposed by labor and business.

A-50: YES. Yay, a Yes vote. This was the last vote I made on my ballot though, so take that for what you will. This is the "Limited Gaming" measure, that would allow the three cities in Colorado that already have casinos to raise the single-bet limit to $100, add craps and roulette, and extend hours. Extra tax proceeds would go to funding community colleges (probably about $80 million/year), which are woefully underfunded in the state. On the downside, it reduces the casino tax rate from 40% to 20%, so it's definitely a balancing act. I voted yes reticently, but nonetheless voted yes.

A-51. NO. The toughest vote I've made since I've been able to vote, actually. This bill would raise the state sales tax rate from 2.9 to 3.1 and earmark additional revenue to the waiting list for services to the developmentally disabled. This is an incredibly needy group in Colorado, with a 9,600 person waiting list, and they deserve more funding. I have 2 problems with the measure: first, it doesn't have a sunset clause, so the DD waitlist would get about $170 million per year starting in 2010 and going forever; and second, that in order to create systemic fiscal and healthcare reform we shouldn't siphon off smaller groups for tax increases. Where do we stop? The mental health community will be putting a tax on the ballot in 2009, and I worry about the precedent this sets. I didn't want to vote no on this TYPE of measure, but I did vote no based on the specifics.

A-52: NO. This is a constitutional change to Colorado's severance tax (for oil and natural gas), but it doesn't actually change the tax rates, just where the money goes. It would cap current funding for water projects and energy programs that are both partially funded through the severance tax (about $78 million/year) and would only allow for increases based on inflation. This means that water projects and low-income energy assistance, not to mention renewable programs and wildlife protection, will see across the board funding cuts. New revenue (almost $1 billion over 10 years) would be given to transportation projects, mainly on I-70 between Grand Junction and Limon. This has no sunset either, so if it passes we'll have a kick-ass stretch of I-70 by 2030 but no water to plant crops. Hmmm, seems like a terrible tradeoff to me.

A-53 (and 55, 56, and 57): These 4 amendments were pro-union measures, things such as workplace safety and mandatory healthcare. They were put on the ballot as a response to 47, 49, and 54 (so many damn numbers...) but have now been pulled, through an agreement between labor and business, and instead both are concentrating their energies on defeating 47, 49 and 54. IF they were still on the ballot, I would've voted NO on all 4, but they're not, so yay! We don't even have to make that choice.

A-54: NO. This so-called "Clean Government" Amendment would ban the leaders of any company that receives a sole-source government contract from giving ANY campaign donations to ANY candidate. This would also prohibit family members (including cousins) of these individuals from donating as well. It's a fundamental violation of free speech rights, but more importantly it's just a ridiculous idea: most sole-source contracts aren't given because of corruption, it's because many companies specialize in particular products and services that no other corporation in the area provides. 

A-58: YES. This is another severance tax amendment (though it's statutory, not constitutional...the devil is in the details). Gov. Bill Ritter is pushing A-58, which would eliminate a current tax credit given to oil and gas companies that allows large corporations to get out of paying severance taxes almost completely. It would do some other things as well, like flatten the severance tax rate and exempt more "low-production" wells (read: mom and pop shops) from having to pay these taxes. 60% of this new revenue would be given to scholarship programs for low and middle-income students, while some would be given to water projects and transportation. This would also have NO effect on current rates for oil and natural gas for consumers, since the market prices of both commodities are set based on the international markets. Don't believe the ridiculous assertions on TV.

A-59: YES. YES. YES. You should've seen this coming, since I'm working on the campaign, but Amendment 59, the "Savings Account For Education" would create a new rainy day fund that saves money in good times so that services aren't cut in bad times. It would also dedicate a source of revenue for the current State Education Fund without raising taxes, just allowing the government to keep revenue it already receives. It also takes a step to fix the current fiscal knot in Colorado, which calls for mandatory spending increases (inflation + 1%) on education while also mandating rebates for the taxpayers (even if it's only $1) if the state takes in more than 6% over inflation in a given year. Right now, Colorado is the only state in the nation that can run a surplus AND a deficit at the same time. A-59 takes a step to change this and to make the education system more solvent. 

Ref. L: YES. This lowers the age one can run for the state legislature from 25 to 21. There's not much more to it, and it seems like if you can buy beer, you should be able to run for office. If you're not experienced or bright enough, let the voters decide. 

Ref. M and N: YES. These eliminate obsolete statutes in the CO constitution dealing with forestry regulations and alcohol distribution. They're simple fixes to make our constitution more manageable. 

Ref. O: YES. This measure would make it more difficult to put things in the constitution while making it easier for citizens to change statutory laws. Right now, if Colorado voters can get 76,047 signatures on a petition (5% of the number of voters in the last Secretary of State's election), they can put a law on the ballot. It's how bad policies like TABOR and A-48 are even a part of the conversation. This increases the requirement for constitutional changes by 16,000 sigs and slightly reduces the number for statutory changes. It also makes a distribution requirement, so that 8% of all signatures have to be collected in each House district in the state. Let's keep Doug Bruce from destroying our state even more and pass Ref. O. 

So there you have it. In short, vote YES on 50, 58, 59 and the Refs, and vote NO on everything else. 

Cheers,

SO I was on CNN

That's right. CNN does official watch parties of the debates, and I was at the Democratic one. Justin Henceroth and I were apparently on twice, once before the debates while phonebanking and once during the debates when the cameras looked into the crowd of the watch party. It was a really cool experience, watching the debates with cameras and flashes constantly in your eyes. 

That being said, what another solid performance for Sen. Obama. McCain is desperately running out of time. His remarks on Ayers were unnecessarily over the top, and his answers on choice should scare even many anti-abortion voters. Anyone who thinks that women should have the right to an abortion if their life is at risk should be given serious pause after McCain railed against the "life and health of the mother" exceptions in many state abortion codes. 

I won't get into that mess right now, but expect my Colorado ballot guide on Sunday. All 14 of the Amendments. That's right, 14. I'll even tell you which Colorado Supreme Court Justice doesn't deserve retention. Why? Because I'm kind of a dork. But that's part of the reason I'm here...I do the dorky work so you don't have to.

Cheers!

21 days...

The election is almost here. Wowsers. In 3 weeks we'll have a new president, 12 new senators (hopefully), 50 new representatives and tons of new laws on the books around the country...

For me, this time is bittersweet. The past 2 years have been like political cocaine for me, since I can spend days reading about politics without end and gladly spend years focused on a single campaign. But all good things have to come to an end. 

The next three weeks will consist of election predictions. I'll do a presidential one every week, and Senate and important House races at least once before election day. In 2006, I was off by 1 seat in the House and 1 in the Senate, so my track record isn't too shabby. 

This is my favorite part of the election season. Get ready. 

Obama v. McCain

Those of you who know me know that I love to rail about politics, whether they're local, state, national or international. I have sort of refrained from posting them here, but I'm going to be doing more political writing in the next few weeks, at least until November 4. 

So I figured I would start not with the past 18 months of the campaign, but with Friday's debate, which the American people and political pundits saw in two completely different lights. Pundits called it a draw, giving the edge to whichever candidate they were more closely aligned with on the partisan spectrum (except Leslie Sanchez, who remains the most worthless political commentator on any network, and I'm counting Bill O'Reilly and Lou Dobbs in that mix). 

The American people, in general, saw the debate as an Obama victory, which isn't bad in what was supposedly McCain's strongest debate format (since it was 70% foreign policy). Independents gave him the edge by almost 20, and were mostly impressed with his answers on the bailout package and how it will affect the middle class along with his calls to refocus international efforts in Afghanistan rather than Iraq. The debate probably didn't move many into the "strong Obama" or "strong McCain" categories, but it did show a few things about the state of the campaign that I think are important to note.

When I watched the debate, I couldn't help paying the most attention to two things: body language and CNN's awesome real-time approval-disapproval dial, which is my favorite TV widget of the cycle. In these debates, with the exception of 2-3 statements that get replayed again and again OR a giant gaffe that came unexpectedly, any of us could probably guess what's being said. The truly important aspects are how the candidates look in comparison  to one another and to popular conceptions of what it means to be president, and how the public agrees or disagrees with the ways they are framing the issues.

Obama looked poised. He didn't look confident at first, mainly because he's not good behind a podium. It gives him an opportunity to have a pad of paper, and his professorial background makes him scribble all over it, which shows him as detached and uninterested in what his opponent was saying. He had a better entrance, addressing McCain as "John, it's a pleasure to see you" though McCain said nothing in return (probably thinking they weren't mic'ed yet...whoops).

McCain looked physically uncomfortable on stage, though he is a more natural debater than public speaker, and this format was probably beneficial to him since it gave more time for spontaneity, which he's better at than Obama is (as a function of his knowledge of laws and process, not natural ability). He scored the only discernible laugh-out-loud moment when he asked Jim Lehrer "What, didn't you think I could hear him" after Obama was told to talk to John directly. He still does his creepy smile thing, though, and he has a penchant for looking condescending when Obama talks policy. 

As far as the real-time approval ratings went, they weren't very surprising. The most negative term for the debate was "subcommittee", fitting, since this is a change election and that sounds too insider-baseball for 90% of the American public. The best results for McCain came during his personal stories. For Obama, a lot of them came when he said he agreed with John, because it makes him look pragmatic and more bipartisan. He also got good marks when he said "You're wrong John" or "That's not true". Calling McCain out toughens him up in the minds of many undecided voters, and McCain just doesn't respond, which allows the frame of "McCain makes things up" to sink it further and create some doubt in the minds of the "moveable 10" (or the 10% of voters, like my Nana, who actually vote for both Dem and Rep candidates).

There are a couple of moments that stick out. Obama's best play strategically was also his most humanizing moment, and something that anyone with a military connection heard loud and clear. After McCain told a story of a soldier whose mother gave him a bracelet to wear on the campaign trail, he said that he was running to ensure that this soldier "didn't die in vain". Obama shot right back, saying "I have a bracelet too, John", which was unexpected and risky, but his story about a mother who asked him to make sure that no one else had to feel the pain she felt at losing a son was touching and had the right amount of gravitas to answer McCain's frame about "winning in Iraq". It was a great two minutes for those of us who are debaters, because it's what we strive for. Not necessarily winning every position, but making sure our opponents don't win the ones they should.

And McCain should have won this debate. Obama is not a good debater (he was the fourth best Democratic candidate at the debates, after Biden, Clinton, and Edwards, in that order). Right now, McCain needed a game-changing moment, and now has to hope that Sarah Palin does spectacularly at the VP debates. Obama minimized McCain's greatest advantage, his public trust on foreign policy, and came across as reasonable, determined and calm. McCain looked angry, condescending at times, and unwilling to change his mind. 

Look for the polling in the next 2-3 days to show Obama leading about 52-43 in all of the major tracking polls (but only pay attention to the three day averages, please! Lower margins of error and they self-correct single-day storylines and blips in the media). 

Work Update

Jeepers.

It's been a long while since I posted something here. Whoops. I promise it's for good reason, namely that I have been working like crazy and still  haven't gotten Comcast to install internet in my apartment. Though it's done wonders for my reading list (newest recommendation: "The Human Stain" by Philip Roth...really excellent), it hasn't really let me be online apart from when I'm here at work.

I still get plenty of online time, because work is pure craziness. I was told yesterday by Carol that I should take this and next Friday off, because I've been working too much. I peg my hours at about 60/wk., especially if you count my speeches for the campaign (more on that in a bit). 

I'm still loving almost every minute of my job. There are times when I do bitch work, as with any fellowship or first post-college job, but that stuff has become really minimal. Basically, the only crappy stuff I do everyday is organization so that we can have a better communication strategy. Simple stuff: we didn't have a master contact list for the organization, we didn't have a YouTube account, hell, we didn't have a Facebook page. That's all done now, and we move onto the more "fun stuff".

What is that fun stuff, you ask? Really, it's just awesome. We received both of the grants I applied for, giving us $25,000 for a new media campaign. Our first goal was to produce a set of 10 videos to engage in sort of a viral video campaign, using YouTube, blogs, outreach, social networking, etc. We decided this last Tuesday and filmed this week, Tuesday and today. It was amazing. We got 12 people, including college students, teachers, administrators, doctors, school counselors, and then, to top it off, Andrew (Speaker of the House) and Cary (State Treasurer). The videos are going to be done by Sept. 27, a full five weeks before the election, and they'll be our first campaign commercials. w00t. I was so thrilled. I'm not in the video (Carol and I decided not to be) but I'm doing the narration. I'll post it here when we finish. Should be awesome.

Second big thing that happened is that I've been trained as a speaker for the campaign. SAFE wanted about 20 surrogates who could travel around and get the word out. I apparently am pretty decent at this, because I've done three already and no one else has done more than one. I basically own Littleton when it comes to speaking...I've already hit each of their state house districts. It's a pretty fun thing, too. I give a 5-10 minute stump speech (no notes now) about SAFE and why it's good for education, who's supporting it, and what people can expect CO to look like if it passes. Then I take questions and schmooze people into volunteering. Last night I was asked to go to the HD 38 Dems meeting, and to prepare for 20 people (normal size). Well, I get there and there are 75. So I don't have enough materials, but I get to be WAY more engaging and outgoing with my speech. They seemed to love it, and we got 15 volunteers (which is impossible here, because of the Obama and Udall campaigns taking everyone). Rep. Rice, who is a great moderate Dem here in Denver metro, and his campaign manager were there too. She told me that I was about as vibrant as the Speaker was at these things, and that I should keep doing this around the state and I'll get a job in communications with no problem at the state house or senate. Sweet action.

Personally, life has been tougher, but still great. Lots of drama, as I guess is the case whenever you leave people and move to a new place, but I've met tons of people. JRs and Cheeky Monk have become my two "hangouts" if anything, and it's been great to see people from CC and new faces all around the city. I've resigned myself to the fact that I'm going to have friends while here, rather than a group of friends, and I'm kind of happy about that. It means I get to experience more people. Not too bad a deal. 

My official end date with COFPI is now July 31, 2009. Almost perfect timing (hell I might be able to go to the beach this year if Nana moves the week back to the start of August...hint, hint). 

I've almost completely decided that I'm going to do something radically different after this year though. Right now, I'm checking out language immersion programs in Germany and Mexico. Ideally, I'll be able to spend 4 months in each country, learning Spanish (getting proficient really) and then getting back to fluency in German. Cost-wise, I doubt that's a viable option (each program is about $5,000, not counting airfare and spending money). Right now, I'm going to start saving for Mexico I think, and probably take out a loan for the tuition money for the program. I've always wanted to learn Spanish, and I think spending 4 months there could be really awesome, despite being frightening. Who knows, I might bear down and go for broke, spending 9-10 months learning language and traveling. I probably only have one chance to do that, so may as well go for it. 

That's it for now. I have a presentation to our trustees about 5 ballot initiatives, which I'll post on later (my own mini-voters guide for progressive-minded people). 

Convention Fun, part four

The Parties of Convention Week

Gosh. That's about all I can say about Wednesday through Friday of convention week. By a complete set of chance circumstances, I had the good fortune of meeting a bunch of Hillary Clinton delegates and got into two of the best parties of the convention. This requires a bit of a backstory.

So Angela Cobian, a good friend of mine, has been working on the Mark Udall for Senate campaign and decided to introduce me to a friend of hers, Ryan, who had also been working here in Denver this summer. Ryan was in town for the convention before flying back to school in Boston, so we decided to enjoy some convention festivities. Wednesday we all got tickets to a political comedy show, which was okay at best (one of the guys was terrific, he writes for Salon, but the rest were eh). After that, we think we'll go into downtown Denver in order to hang around and see some famous people.

Well Ryan had met a few of the delegates this week, and called one of them to see if anything was going on. Victor, who was from Texas, told us to come to LODO's on Market St. for a party hosted by America's Credit Unions. America's Credit Unions, you ask? Why yes. We know, it sounded really lame. Ummm...it wasn't. It was simply put the best party I have ever been to in my life.

We walk into the bar (Victor can get three of us in) and proceed to start ordering drinks (it's an open bar). Needless to say, that means that we would get nicer stuff than we could normally purchase ourselves. I was introduced to a few members of the Texas delegation, and two guys from South Carolina, along with a bunch of people from Colorado. At one point, I had a ten minute conversation with Mark Ferrandino, a state representative here, about education policy and the upcoming elections, which was lots of fun. Mark is the youngest state rep in CO (he's 29) and also the first openly gay man elected to the Colorado statehouse. He's got a really bright future in front of him, and so I got his card (the first of many that night). There was great music, and the people were so friendly. We stayed until 2:30, when I poured myself into a cab to make the 30 block ride home (leaving my car downtown...look how responsible I am). The best part of the whole night was just how good a mood everyone was in. I was in a group of all Hillary delegates, not a single Obama supporter in the primary among the dozen or so of them. They all had "Clintonites for Obama" or "Hillary Supporters for Obama" buttons on and couldn't say enough about how great the convention has been for both candidates. They were sad of course, but thrilled to be a part of this history. 

Thursday night was just the icing on the cake. First of all, I got tickets to Invesco to see Obama's speech. I got a call at 4 pm from Lauren Gutstadt, my new favorite human on the planet, saying she had a ticket. More importantly, when I got there at 6:30, she had a way to sneak me into section 108 of the stadium. FOURTH ROW. I was in the posse of Virginia governor Tim Kaine. Ashley Judd was right behind us (If you saw her on tv, which you might have, we were 5 seats to her left and 3 rows in front of her...that's right, we had better seats than Ashley Judd). 

The speech was masterful. "Political Symphony" was the wonderful description David Gergen gave it. Everything about the event was spectacular. I'll have pictures up in the next few days, showing you just how close we were to the floor. I was close enough for John Kerry to wave at me. It was pretty sweet. 

That night saw the end of the convention though, and with it, the last night for shenanigans. So Ryan, Danae and myself headed out the the final party, which we thought could be the hardest to get into. It was the Texas delegation party, and thus the third biggest of the night (after the Google/Vanity Fair party and the California event). It was at the Pinnacle Club at the top of the Qwest Building here in Denver (floor 38). More importantly, it had lots of security. So we have to mention several of the people's names who were are there to see, and they skeptically let us inside. The party is being put on by the co-chair of the entire convention, TX senator Leticia van der Pute, who is also a great dancer as we learned around 1 am. Beyond the free food and the drinks that were flowing, the party had a big band playing everyone's favorite oldies dance music. Just awesome. The last twenty minutes were spent chanting for Obama in 2008. This was the face of a party that was ready to head straight for November. Especially with John McCain's beauty-queen VP Sarah Palin on the other end of the ticket....but I digress. 

Friday morning, after waking up late, we decided to take the Texans on a hike over outside Littleton. We got a great view of the front range and a slightly obscured view of the Flatirons over nearer Boulder, and the Texans seemed to really enjoy themselves, except for Ruby during the short period when there was a rattlesnake traversing the trail with us. I just can't say enough good things about these people though: young and engaged with the process, passionate, and people who put the country ahead of our particular candidate (unlike, you know, certain Republican candidates). Moreover, they were a blast. 

I've caught the bug. Four years from now, I'll be running for a national delegate position. I can't imagine not being at the convention now. It's just too much of  a transcendent event.

Convention Fun, part drei

Hillary

So I promised a quick post about Hillary's speech, and I have to say that as I've spent the past few days digesting the convention I have become even more emphatic with my praise for her speech and poise at the convention. Beyond knowing that she spent 18 months in the hardest fought primary campaign in the modern era and that she has been now vilified by both the left and the right, she spoke with such passion and such grace that I couldn't help but beam with happiness throughout the speech: both for supporting her historic candidacy itself, but also for the unity our party has going forward to elect Barack Obama and Joe Biden in November. 

I was at Union Station for Hillary's speech, watching the MSNBC coverage. It was, for the most part, mediocre. Pat Buchanan is a blowhard, Chris Matthews was off his game (and a little angry) and Norah O'Donnell sounds like she has never ever read a book about politics, let alone has covered it on the national stage for half a decade. The one bright shining light was Rachel Maddow, who deservedly has been given her own primetime show on the network and is my favorite political journalist not named Tim Russert (R.I.P). Her analysis of each speech, particularly Mark Warner's subpar keynote address, was spot-on. Watch her show. And read her backstory, because she's led a pretty amazing life for a 34 year old. 

Back to the speeches though. The night started with the best quote of the convention, from PA Senator Bob Casey:

"John McCain likes to say he's a maverick. But he's voted with President Bush over 90 percent of the time. I'm sorry. That's not a maverick. That's a sidekick".

Now, I'm no Bob Casey fan, but he won me over with his passionate defense of Obama last night. Mark Warner, on the other hand, spoke as though we weren't Democrats, feverishly defending a post-partisan America that simply doesn't (and never should) exist. Ugh. I was a huge Warner fan coming into this campaign. I came away underwhelmed. 

That didn't last long though, because as soon as Hillary took the podium I was enthralled. Some of you probably don't know my backstory on Hillary Clinton: I used to hate her. Up through early last year, even, I railed against her running for the presidency and hoped she would stay in the Senate, away from the limelight. Watching the debates and the campaign unfold, though, I realized that my hatred for her was just a re-hashing of rightwing talking points: that she's a bitch, that she's too liberal, that she's this-and-that. Well, come June 2007 I was on the bandwagon, and by March of this year I had donated, phone banked, campaigned, caucused, and met Hillary Clinton, and was elected as a delegate for Hillary by my peers at CC (there weren't many of us, but we were passionate!). 

As she spoke, I was reminded of every reason I had for supporting Hillary for president. She has been knocked around by Republicans for 20 years and refused to back down. She fights back, and when she throws a punch it sticks to those she's aiming for. Within a minute of her speech, I knew what the next 9 weeks of the campaign would be like:

No way, No how, No McCain! Barack Obama is my candidate for President.

Hillary is the type of Democrat who takes a stand; rather than being anti-Republican, she is pro-Democrat. She spoke wonderfully about universal health care, about women's and gay rights, about ending the war, and finally about Barack and Michelle Obama. She only used the word "I" four times. This was a rallying cry to all Democrats, and she didn't let the symbolism of speaking on the 88th anniversary of women's suffrage go to waste:

My mother was born before women had the right to vote. This year, my daughter was able to vote for her mother for President of the United States. We've come a long way...this campaign you all put 18 million cracks in the highest glass ceiling in the United States.

When her speech ended, the crowd around me (mostly Obama supporters, rather than Hillary voters) erupted. I heard one man next to me say "if there is a Democrat out there who doesn't respect and admire Hillary Clinton right now, they haven't been paying attention."

I left Union Station later that night, knowing that that speech would stay with me for the rest of my life, as the culmination of a hard fought campaign that left this country better off than it was when it began.

Convention Fun, part deux

Hillary Clinton, Rachel Maddow, Protests and Politics

Wow. Just wow. Watching Hillary Clinton speak last night made me remember just how much respect and admiration I have for that woman. I know that a lot of people out there don't like Hillary. Very few of them can give me a real reason (and no, saying she's a socialist or a bitch are not reasons). I can't see it. She gave me chills, and if you know me at all, that's hard to do. 

But more on Hillary later. There are many more convention stories to be told before that. 

We'll start on Sunday. Sunday was actually a kind of lazy day for the convention unless you were going to one of the secondary kickoff parties (which I wasn't). I wandered around town though and got a feel for where everything was going to be. FYI, the coolest part of the convention might just be the Big Tent, where all the bloggers are being housed. Now, the convention should have given out more blogging credentials, especially to state-based blogs, but the people who were there were having a blast and just seemed to be ecstatic about being here. More importantly, they have free New Belgium beer flowing for everyone. It's crowded, but a sweet set-up (and somewhere I'd love to be in 4 years, depending on my location at the time). Sunday evening, Ash and I went out to dinner and were right next door to the Chicago Democrats party, and caught some of Dick Durbin's interviews and saw Tammy Duckworth, one of my political idols. For those of you who don't know her, Tammy lost a leg in a helicopter crash in Iraq and ran for Congress as a Democrat when she came home. She's tough as hell, and it's too bad she's not in Congress right now. 

Fun convention kitsch: I got handed an XL condom from a street vendor that said "Protect Yourself from John McCain." There are 10 of them, apparently, all with facts about women's rights on the back. Mine said "#10: John McCain has voted against women's rights 125 in Congress." When women, especially Hillary women, even think about supporting McCain, know that this is where he stands. He's also spoken out against a bill that would guarantee women equal pay for equal work. Yeah, sounds like someone that we Democrats should support...

Monday though brought me my first taste of riled-up convention street life. I've never seen Denver this bustling. You can't walk down the street without seeing protesters and police every block. I got to see a protester get beat down (deservedly) by a cop for trying to charge a group of anti-abortion protesters. These weren't your run-of-the-mill anti-abortion protesters though. OH NO. One was shouting about how the Old Testament tells women to stay in the kitchen (funny, I don't remember reading that) and one had a sign about how God was a Republican. Now, I think these people are pretty abhorrent, but they shouldn't be hit. So good job Denver PD (who have actually been phenomenal this week. I can't speak highly enough of the interactions I've had with cops so far). 

Now Scott Weaver (or Scoots, as I'll call him here) and Mike Freeman (Hustler) both came down to see me Monday. We decided, after a couple of drinks, to go to a party I was invited to by a member of our think tank, Liz. It was the "40 under 40: Emerging Young Dems" party, sponsored by Google, and it was at Lure, possibly the most pretentious place in Denver. Well, turns out that there was a list. And they weren't letting you in if you weren't on it. SO needless to say, I refused to be deterred. I go right up to the girl, and tell her my name. When it's not on the list, I tell her "that's funny," and then ask if two other names are on the list. I knew a couple of people supposed to be there, so I took a stab. Well, both of them were on the list. I'm giving her my ID to write down my name when a bouncer comes over and says that only people on the list can get in right now, and to come back in 30. Ugh...so close. Well, we leave, only a little dejected, and go to a bar to grab some drinks. This ends up being way more fun anyway, and all in all it was a good night 3 for the convention. I found out that the 40s party ended up being a real bummer, so I wasn't too upset.  

Hillary really deserves her own posting, so I'm going to leave it at Sunday and Monday for this one. I'll write about Hill later tonight though, before I go out to a political comedy show (because I'm a dork) and spend the night on the town. I hope life is as fun for you wherever you are as it is here. 

Convention Fun, part one

The Kickoff Party

Well, there might not be a better time for political junkies (with the exception of election day itself) than the weeks of the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. It does get so much better, though, when it's happening in your city and even your neighborhood. That is my life right now. I thought I'd give you at least a little piece of what's been going on here at the convention, over several posts, so you can better play armchair political quarterback at home.

First off, let me say that I don't have credentials. This is true for everyone who isn't a delegate (there are 4,300+), reporter or state-based blogger, Colorado politician/non-profit director or head of a major union/democratic donor. This means that only about 7,000 people are really "in the know" here, with thousands more volunteering. I am not one of them. My stories prove that you don't have to be in order to have a great time here.

Almost everyone thinks that the convention starts Monday. Oh no no no. The convention really has three different start points: one for Coloradans (Saturday afternoon), on for the media (Saturday night) and one for the delegates and convention-goers (Monday morning). Saturday consists of two big parties; one is put on by a local law firm which also serves as the head counsel for the Convention Committee and a local polling outfit. We called it the RBI/Isaacson party. I say we because I got to go. My boss, Carol, who I effusively praise whenever I get the chance, was invited to this event, and two of our friends at RBI, Toral and Niki, came by on Friday afternoon to pick some stuff up from us. They casually mentioned the party, and I was handed an invitation and told to RSVP. I'm thinking there is no way I can do that the night before the party, but I call anyway because as any of you reading this know, I have no scruples when it comes to politics. Well, they say that it's fine, and that I should be there between 5 and 8 at this martini bar called the Corner Office. Done and done. Then they ask me if I'm bringing a date. Without thinking I say "yes", we end our conversation, and then I realize I don't actually have a date. So I call up Ash Merscher and ask her to be my fake-date arm candy for the evening, she says yes, and we're on our way.

After getting lost and trying to navigate Denver streets with their new configurations (read: half of them are closed), we get to the party. Now, I'm ready to be disappointed. I figure any party I can get invited to can't be all that posh. Wrong. Ash and I walk in and get our nametags (mine is printed, funny story about that later) and our 3 free tickets for drinks, good for martinis. Naturally, we go to the bar. This place is posh though. There's a spread with sushi and creme brulee spoons (which I ate all night), there are about 150 people in suits and cocktail dresses...it's a good party. As I walk in the Lt. Gov. of CO, Barb O'Brien, is heading out, and Ash and I soon see Governor Ritter, John Hickenlooper (Denver's mayor, and a brewmaster at Wynkoop brewery), Rep. Diana DeGette, a bunch of superdelegates, and the like. We only briefly say anything to a few of them, because we're both in a bit of shock that we're here at all. So we drink, and talk with Niki, Toral and Kevin (who graduated with us at CC), wander around and whatnot.

Come about 7, everyone is getting a little more friendly, and some of the important people are leaving for the media party, the other major event that night over at Elitch Gardens. Diana DeGette, my representative and a CC grad, is surveying the room (this is while Ash is getting a drink) and I walk past. She cranes her neck to try and see what my nametag says, so I slow down so that she can. She nods, and whispers to her neighbor while pointing at me as I walk past. This happens in about 6 seconds, but it was pretty sweet to have my Congresswoman whispering something about me. What was it? IDK. Could've been that she hated my tie. I doubt it, since I'm always well put together, but you never know (especially since she was wearing this awful floral print mumu-esque top...what can you do?)

So as the night is winding down at the bar, Ash and I introduce ourselves to two of Niki's friends, who just got their master's at DU. We decide after talking to go for drinks, and after meandering around the bar for a bit, Niki and I get pulled aside by a partner at RBI, Rick, who offers us two press passes to the media party. Keep in mind that these were impossible to get before this week unless you really know someone. But it's 8:30, the event is ending at 10, and we want to hang out in LoDo. Toral, meanwhile, is drunk, so we hand off the tickets to her and her boyfriend, tell them that they owe us, and send them on their way. They're thrilled, and so are we. We head into the town to keep the night going, and wind up at Willie G's at 16th and Lawrence, one of my favorite places in Denver. We're dressed well, so they are very nice, and give us a great table with a great waiter named Dave. We drink some more, order some food, and talk politics. It was awesome, as always. Niki and I chatted about SAFE and polling, then we all talked about what convention parties we were going to try and sneak into and how we'd do it.

After two hours or so, everyone's sobering up and the night is getting away from us, so we pack it in. Niki takes Ash back to her place at DU and I make my way home. It was a great way to start the convention.

I'm leaving tons of stuff out (Ash and I getting hit on by lawyers at the bar, meeting the chairman of Britian's Liberal Democrats party, you get the idea), but overall, you get the picture.

So that was Day 1. Days 2, 3, and 4 (which were all fun, but not as crazy) are coming soon. You'll be able to hear all about running into senators, a guy Ash thought was named "Wolf Blitzen", protestors getting pepper-sprayed in front of me, the Fred Phelps brigade, and of course, Scott, Mike and me trying to sneak into one of the biggest parties at the convention (unsuccessfully).

Time to head back downtown for more coverage. Make sure you watch Hillary tonight!

On Grant Writing, Campaign Finance Violations and "Right-Wing Research"

So day 3 of the fellowship has come and almost gone. It's just after 5:30, which means I have been at COFPI for 9 hours (less the 15 minutes I took for lunch today...yes, 15 minutes) and I still have a  little more research to do before I walk home for the night. Despite the longer hours than I was expecting (45/week looks like my upcoming yearly average), I am still so excited about everything we're doing and the work I've been given, which I'm simply not qualified to do, methinks. 

This morning I went to the America Votes headquarters, which is serving as a technological headquarters for a group COFPI is involved with. It's called the (c) 3 Roundtable, and consists of 30 501(c)3 nonprofit groups here in Denver. Essentially, it makes it easier for the leaders of these groups to organize their outreach and action strategies for particular initiatives and laws while also acting as a data-sharing service, so that we can all access one another's research and publications. Today all we did was set up our GoogleGroup, which lets us share all our documents and create a master calendar. Small steps toward getting organized, but it's a start. 

I got to the office and was told that I had one project: get on the phone with the Secretary of State (who recently won a primary election for Congress, like, last Tuesday), or someone high up in his organization. Seems as though ultra-conservative groups are already pulling out the stops against SAFE, and someone with the campaign had received a mailer soliciting donations from one of these groups, Colorado At Its Best. As an aside, I love how these groups name themselves...apparently, Colorado is at its best when we don't fund education. Hmmm. 

Problem was, this group isn't registered as an issue organization in Colorado, which means it can't send out mailers asking for funding. My job all of this morning and a lot of the afternoon was to research its chairperson, Dennis (big ol' douchebag), and then draft an email to the SAFE lawyers so that they could decide whether or not we are going to sue CAIB for violating campaign finance laws (as I learned today it's specifically Article 6 of Amendment 28 to the Colorado Constitution that they were violating. Again, I digress). 

So after encouraging the lawyers to give us the greenlight for a complaint, Carol gave me yet another task that I feel grossly unqualified for (almost all of my tasks, actually. I do love Carol. More on that later). It seems as though the Gill Foundation, is giving out grants to Colorado-based nonprofits to do outreach and civic engagement. Conveniently, my job is outreach and civic engagement. So I drafted a $20,000 grant proposal today to the Gill Foundation, telling them just why COFPI  should get money to mobilize voters. Grant writing is a special kind of writing. Really, it involves a good amount of bullshitting with just enough substantive political proposals so that you don't sound like you are completely full of it. I think my time at Colorado College trained me well to find that delicate balance. 

Before I get back to the last bit of work I have before leaving tonight, let's go back to Carol. So Carol Hedges is downright awesome. Her office is right across the hall from mine, and she always makes fun of me when I know something I'm not supposed to. Funny story: First day, 10:30 am, Carol and Kathy (the director of COFPI) were curious whether cigarettes were taxed on Indian reservations in Colorado. I chimed in and told them no, but that New York state had recently started a tax like that, and they kind of just looked at me. Carol told me to leave, and to come back when I had something I didn't know about. Kathy just laughed. Between telling me stories about tons of really powerful people or using the F word in staff meetings, I think Carol and I will have a good time working together this year. 

Well that's all for now. I have work to do before I head out into Capitol Hill for a night on the town. Denver microbrews, here I come.