I've been on this campaign for almost 20 of the 21 months it's been going. I started out supporting New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who I thought was the most thoughtful and experienced of the candidates, but who soon disappointed me by not articulating anything resembling a coherent position on almost any issue. That fairytale lasted about 2 months.
I then got over my overwhelming dislike of Hillary Clinton after watching her throughout the debates and stump speeches. I've talked about my perceptual shift toward Hillary before, so I won't go there again, but needless to say I felt something about her that led me to believe she'd make a great president. I still feel that today.
The day Hillary dropped out, I sent a check to Barack Obama and haven't looked back. His choice of Joe Biden (of whom I'm a HUGE fan, I mean huge) was a defining moment for me. I trust his judgment and I think he'll make a damn fine president.
Tuesday night, at 8:55 est, Barack Obama will be declared the president-elect of the United States.
I'm not normally overconfident about these things. In 2004, I thought Kerry was going to lose, and I called Bush in 2000 as well (granted I was a young Republican back then, but I digress). I believe not only that Obama will win this election, but that he'll win it handily. I think a landslide is anything over 350 electoral votes, and right now I'll project that Obama wins at least that many.
How you ask?
There are a group of SAFE democratic states. They are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. These states add up to 190 electoral votes. Only 80 more to go.
The "normal" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire will all vote for Obama by 10+ points. Of that group, Michigan and Iowa will approach 60% voting for Obama. There are 74 more electoral votes, putting us at 264. 6 more votes to go.
If I am predicting the next largest margin for Obama, I'll go with Virginia, which I think Obama will win by 9. There's 13 more votes, and Obama has won the election with 277 electoral votes.
But we're not done. Oh no. The next states are those that Obama will win by 4 to 8 points. Here we have Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and the great state of Colorado. This brings us to 338 electoral votes.
Now you might think I'm getting greedy. Nope. We still have a couple more.
Obama will win several "red" states by between .1 and 3 points. They are: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Yes, you read that right. Georgia. I believe that Obama will win the state by an almost miniscule margin, due to the high numbers of black voters turning out for the first time and a slight overperformance in white voters than John Kerry (who got 29% of the white vote in 2004). This gets Obama to 390 electoral votes. That's his final tally, I think, come the end of the night.
Next come the states that McCain will narrowly squeak out, from .1 to 3 percent. They are: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska-2 (which awards EVs by congressional district in addition to the statewide winner). This is 17 EVs.
Then states he'll win by between 4 and 9 points. South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, and somewhat surprisingly, Mississippi (36% of registered voters are black, and breaking 92-3 to Obama at the moment). This takes us to 37 electoral votes.
McCain has a few states he'll win with between 10 and 20 points. Those are: South Carolina, Nebraska (the rest), Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Louisiana. He's now got 101 votes.
Now for the McCain blowout states, any with 20 or more points. These are the really red states: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Not to mention Oklahoma, which he should win by 35 (his biggest margin of the night, I think, just beating out ID and UT).
This gives McCain 148 electoral votes.
So my end of the night prediction is: Obama/Biden 390, McCain/Palin 148.
Thoughts?
2 comments:
Obama by a landslide is so passe at this point; come on, we want your House and Senate projections.
Yet since you bait me...
I think you're overly confident on Georgia and Indiana. I think there's hope of capturing either or both, but I see them as true toss-ups heading into Tuesday. Polling data indicates indicates Indiana is more likely to break for Obama than Georgia; while both states are in a statistical tie Obama is behind by less in Indiana.
HOWEVER, you're right to point to Georgia's high black population, compared to Indiana. Going through the numbers: the US Census Bureau has Georgia's black population at just under 30%, slightly lower than your 35%, whereas blacks account for just under 9% of the population (same data set). Point is, IFF this election truly is different in terms of demographic turnout, this means underpolling for Obama is greater in Georgia than Indiana. If we put historical black turnout at 25%, (similar to what it was in 2004), and assume it DOUBLES to 50% (mirroring the national average, though still somewhat lower), this represents a 7.5% increase in the total electorate in Georgia, as compared to only a 2.25% increase in the total voting population in Indiana. Based on the fact that primary registration amongst blacks in Georgia was up 85%, assuming a doubling may be overly optimistic, or it may highly pessimistic.
There are any other number of complicating factors...Indiana's proximity to Chicago, as compared to Georgia's polls which stay open later (but then there are regularly court orders for keeping Indiana polls open later than scheduled).
All this is to say, I still think we're more likely to capture Indiana than Georgia, but the key will be in black turnout and how undecideds break (normally, I would say they should break for the likely winner or else stay at home, but democratic fears of a Bradley effect have become so repeated the worries are now cliche).
But I'm not uniformly more pessimistic. I think you're mistaken in giving North Dakota to McCain, Pollster's rolling averages have Obama ahead, and to some extent, the state became redder only when republicans poored massive resources into it to oust Daschle.
Finally, I would take Montana out of that McCain group. I'm not going to give it to Obama yet, but if the day goes well extremely well for Obama, Montana is far west enough that I think we could expect it to go along with the winner (if there is a clear one early enough).
On the timing: much as I would love it to be wrapped up by 8:55 so that I can go to bed by 3am, I expect the number of early voters could drag things out.
Well Zach, I wouldn't leave any states not projected, so I had to push ND and MT to McCain at the moment. I think both will be within 2 points, but I think McCain will squeak them out (and just a quick note: Daschle was in SD, not ND. You're right that ND is not uniformly conservative, but they like to send Dems to the legislature and vote R for pres).
I'll get you house and senate within the day
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