Protest Prop 8 on Saturday

This Saturday at 11:30 Denver will be one of over 100 cities holding a protest against Proposition 8, California's legalization of discrimination that narrowly passed last week. 

Meet up outside the Colorado Supreme Court building, on Bannock between 14th and 15th, at 11:30 and we'll start the march up 16th Street. 

Photos coming as soon as we finish. 

What a Night

Well, overall, it was a great Election Night.

The Democratic Party fundamentally redrew the electoral map under President-Elect Barack Obama. By winning in Nevada and New Mexico (both by double-digits), Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, and even a district in Nebraska, Obama and VP-elect Joe Biden provided a map changing victory and a true hope for the progressive left to pass some of its policy dreams over the next four years.

In Colorado, this victory was joined by several others. Mark Udall, a true western libertarian liberal in the vein of his father Mo, won a Senate seat by 9 points. Betsy Markey beat conservative reactionary homophobe Marilyn Musgrave in the 13th most conservative Congressional district now held by a Democrat, and did it by 11 points. Jared Polis became the first openly gay freshman male elected to the House. In history.

In individual electoral races, progressives had a good night here in Colorado. 

Ballot-wise, we had a pretty solid night, even though my beloved TABOR-fixing Amendment 59 lost by 6, the same margin by which I thought it would win. We defeated two virulently anti-labor measures, the personhood amendment that would've completely eliminated women's healthcare in Colorado, and several terrible tax policies. We became the first state to ever defeat an anti-affirmative action measure written by Californian xenophobe Ward Connerly.  

Around the country, progressives replaced moderates and moderates replaced conservatives. Hell, in a few places, conservatives Democrats replaced batshit insane Republican reactionaries. We elected a number of women to the legislature, including two new female Senators in New Hampshire and North Carolina. 

In an abject failure for the queer community, Proposition 8 passed in California, a victory for hate and discrimination. California gave rights to chickens and farm animals by passing Prop 4, but couldn't give rights to gays and lesbians. God forbid people should have equal rights. I'll have a longer post about the future of the gay rights/queer movement soon, but it's terribly disappointing to watch a progressive state (CA) defeat a progressive pro-gay Proposition. Let's hope that the State Supreme Court does the right thing and overturns it this next session. 

So all in all, not a bad night. But it could've been better. We still have a long way to go in this country. God bless.

Cliffs Notes Predictions

Senate: Dems gain 7 seats, 1 runoff (but win it in December), net increase of 8

House: Dems gain 38 seats, lose 3, net increase of 35

President: Obama 390, McCain 148.

I'm projecting a good night for the Dems. If anything, I'm overzealous in the presidential race by about 45 EVs, and in the House by 10. I'm alright with a little confidence though.

Election Predictions, part 3 (take two)

Take two. The House of Representatives, continued. 

Isn't this fun? Let's start in New Hampshire and go all the way to Wyoming, shall we? Before we get there I forgot one Dem pickup from the last list:

FL-24 (Kosmas (D) v. Feeney (R-inc)): Tom Feeney has been tied pretty clearly to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and had to release an ad apologizing for this early in this campaign cycle. Recent polls put former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas up by 20. That's a bit optimistic, but she'll win this race by double digits. Kosmas by 12. FLIP DEM. 

NH-02 (Shea-Porter (D-inc) v. Bradley (R)): This is a rematch of the biggest upset in 2006, which Shea-Porter trailed by ten coming into election day and won by 4. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley is a compelling candidate, but New Hampshire has gone VERY blue the past cycle and should hold it's course this election. Shea-Porter by 6. DEM RETENTION.

NJ-03 (Adler (D) v. Myers (R), Saxton (R) retiring): Jim Saxton was a moderate Rep, and this district is ancestrally Republican. Even with a Democratic tide, Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers isn't a terrible candidate, and State Senator John Adler isn't the most exciting guy around. Needless to say, Obama's margins in this district matter, though some solid ticket-splitting will help Myers keep it close. Adler by 3. FLIP DEM. 

NJ-04 (Shulman (D) v. Smith (R-inc)): Chris Smith is very conservative, being the only northeastern Republican to vote against renewing the Voting Rights Act in 2006. He's facing Rabbi Dennis Shulman, who would be the first Rabbi and the first blind person to serve in Congress. This race is a favorite of the blogosphere, but won't come together at the end. Smith by 7. REP RETENTION

NJ-07 (Stender (D) v. Lance (R), Ferguson (R) retiring): Mike Ferguson barely held off State Assemblywoman Linda Stender in 2006, and retired this year rather than face her again. State Senator Leonard Lance is a popular figure, and has kept this race close (someone in his family has served NJ in the legislature every decade since the 1810s). Stender hasn't stopped running for this seat since she lost, though, and should pull it out come election day. Stender by 2. FLIP DEM.

NC-08 (Kissell (D) v. Hayes (R-inc)): Social Studies teacher Larry Kissell lost by 329 votes in 2006 in a race that was on no one's radar. Robin Hayes is  a very wealthy and somewhat popular Representative, but Kissell leads in all recent polling. He'll win this race by 5, another seat that Obama's coattails will bring Democrats in the House. FLIP DEM.

NY-13 (McMahon (D) v. Straniere (R), Fossella (R) retiring): Vito Fossella would've kept this, the only Republican seat in New York City, had he not gotten an DUI on the way to see his mistress and illegitimate daughter last year. But he did do those things, so now he's retiring and Democrat Mike McMahon, a city councilman, will easily beat Robert Straniere, who owns a hot dog vending conglomerate. Straniere hasn't even been endorsed by the Staten Island Republican Party. Not a good sign. McMahon by 22. FLIP DEM.

NY-25 (Maffei (D) v. Sweetland (R), Walsh (R) retiring): Dan Maffei almost beat Rep. Jim Walsh in 2006, and never stopped campaigning. Walsh was down in private polling early this year and decided to retire, and businessman Dale Sweetland never caught fire. Maffei will win this race handily, I bet by 13. FLIP DEM.

NY-26 (Kryzan (D) v. Lee (R), Reynolds (R) retiring): Attorney Alice Kryzan was the surprise primary winner here, as the two other major contenders (Veteran Jon Powers and businessman Jack Davis) beat each other to the point of lunacy. She faces businessman Chris Lee, who has run a solid race in this Republican district. This will be one that the Dems narrowly lose on election night, and kick themselves for 2 years about. Lee by 4. REP RETENTION.

NY-29 (Massa (D) v. Kuhl (R-inc)): Shotgun Randy Kuhl got his nickname by pointing a gun at his wife during a dinner party in the 1980s. The good people of New York apparently didn't think this was a character flaw, and elected him to the House. Veteran Eric Massa has run a solid campaign, and will take this seat, especially as Kuhl has said some incendiary stuff the past few weeks (notably, that Democrats want Americans to "suffer" if elected). Massa by 3. FLIP DEM.

OH-01 (Dreihaus (D) v. Chabot (R-inc)): Steve Chabot is a solid moderate Republican, and has fended off challenges from solid candidates in the past. State Rep. Steve Dreihaus, a West Point graduate, provides him his stiffest challenge yet. Chabot's age (he's 81) and Dreihaus' turnout operation in this district, which is 26% black, should push him over the top. Dreihaus by 1. FLIP DEM.

OH-02 (Wulsin (D) v. Schmidt (R-inc)): Mean Jean Schmidt is just about as crazy as can be, calling veteran Jack Murtha a "coward" on the floor of the House in her first ever speech to the body. She'll never win comfortably in this R+13 district, but should win this race against second-time challenger Dr. Vic Wulsin. Wulsin's just not as compelling a candidate as could be found here, and doesn't sport very high favorable ratings (though they're still better than Schmidt's). Mean Jean by 4. REP RETENTION.

OH-07 (Neuhardt (D) v. Austria (R), Hobson (R) retiring): State Senator Steve Austria is the Republican's single best recruit of the cycle, and his moderate image provides him a good chance of winning this Republican-leaning district and holding it for a very long time if he wants. Democrat Sharon Neuhardt has run a spirited race though, and will keep this one fairly close. Austria by 8. REP RETENTION.

OH-14 (O'Neill (D) v. LaTourette (R-inc)): Steve LaTourette has held this Cleveland-area district comfortably for the past few terms, but Judge Bill O'Neill has given him a run for his money this cycle. This is a seat that could flip in a major wave election, but I think O'Neill falls short (though ends up closer than many would think). LaTourette by 6. REP RETENTION.

OH-15 (Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R), Pryce (R) retiring): Deborah Pryce is retiring, and County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy has led State Senator Steve Stivers (try saying that three times fast) in all recent polling. Kilroy has high unfavorables, but if she wins this go-round she can get her district shored-up in the next round of redistricting in 2010, when Ohio will lose a seat. Kilroy by 5. FLIP DEM.

OH-16 (Boccieri (D) v. Schuring (R), Regula (R) retiring): Ralph Regula is incredibly popular in this tossup district, but State Senator John Boccieri has cast a very moderate profile (anti-abortion and pro-labor), whereas State Rep. Kirk Schuring has been lambasted by the right for voting for a number of tax increases in the legislature. Boccieri will win this race by 6, though it was originally supposed to be more competitive. FLIP DEM.

OR-05 (Schrader (D) v. Erikson (R), Hooley (D) retiring): Darlene Hooley almost always underperformed in this district, and this year decided to call it a career. Gubernatorial aide Kurt Schrader consolidated Democratic support, while failed Gubernatorial candidate Mike Erikson dealt with a nasty primary and revelations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion several years ago. This one won't be close. Schrader by 11. DEM RETENTION.

PA-03 (Dahlkemper (D) v. English (R-inc)): "Philly the Hutt" as he's called, due to his striking resemblance to one Jabba the Hutt, is in for the race of his career against Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper. Dahlkemper's personal opposition to abortion has allowed her to tack right in this socially-conservative PA district, and she'll win in what three months ago would've been considered a surprising upset. Even English's own polls have him down near 43%. Not a good place to be. Dahlkemper by 5. FLIP DEM.

PA-04 (Altmire (D-inc) v. Hart (R)): This is my grandparent's district, and my Republican grandma sums up Jason Altmire well: "he just kinda gets stuff done and doesn't focus on crazy social issue stuff." Altmire is a conservative Dem, and took over for ideologue Melissa Hart, who's back for another go round. It seems Altmire has consolidated support in Allegheny County though, and should win by 10. DEM RETENTION. 

PA-12 (Murtha (D-inc) v. Russell (R)): Jack Murtha recently called his district racist, which apparently people don't like very much. He's now in a very competitive race with pilot Bill Russell, but I think Murtha holds on, if by the skin of his teeth (compared to other cycles). Murtha by 9. DEM RETENTION.

SC-01 (Ketner (D) v. Brown (R-inc)): Henry Brown is very conservative, and South Carolina tends to like people like that. But he's facing a stiff challenge from the most unlikely source: an openly gay, progressive woman in Linda Ketner. She's poured $700,000 of her own money into this race, and polling shows her down 5. I'd love to see her pull this out, but I think Brown hangs on by 3. REP RETENTION.

SC-02 (Miller (D) v. Wilson (R-inc)): In successive years, Joe Wilson was named the nicest member of Congress and the meanest member of Congress. I don't quite know how that happens, but Iraq veteran Rob Miller is challenging him in this very red district. Miller is a good candidate, but he's still too liberal for this district. Wilson by 11. REP RETENTION. 

TX-07 (Skelly (D) v. Culberson (R-inc)): John Culberson isn't terribly popular in this super Republican district, and wind power executive Michael Skelly has been a prolific fundraiser and solid campaigner. He's not going to win this race, but his challenge is helping turn Texas just a little bit bluer it would seem. Culberson by 7. REP RETENTION.

TX-10 (Doherty (D) v. McCaul (R-inc)): This is upset special number 2. Larry Joe Doherty is a judge on TV's "Texas Justice" and has been running hard for this seat for over a year. Mike McCaul is very conservative, but hasn't quite hit a note with his district, seeing as he's never gotten more than 57% here. I'm going to call a crazy one: Doherty by less than 1. FLIP DEM.

VA-02 (Nye (D) v. Drake (R-inc)): Thelma Drake held off a challenge from Phil Kellam, and Glenn Nye is the next one up to come shockingly close to beating Ms. Drake but not quite getting there. Drake is never going to win by many in this district, but Nye's campaign hasn't had the outreach outside of Norfolk to make this one a victory. Drake by 3. REP RETENTION.

VA-05 (Perriello (D) v. Goode (R-inc)): Final upset special. Dem Tom Perriello is a Yale-educated lawyer, and he's going up against former Democrat Virgil Goode, who last was seen railing against Rep. Keith Ellison being sworn in on the Koran in 2006 (Ellison is the US' first Muslim Representative). This district combines super-liberal Charlottesville and super conservative Southern Virginia farm country. Perriello is going to win this one in a surprising squeaker, by less than 1. FLIP DEM. 

VA-10 (Feder (D) v. Wolf (R-inc)): This is another rematch, but unlike most of them it won't be close. Judy Feder has proven to be a weak candidate, and longtime Rep. Frank Wolf is pretty beloved in this district, even after a campaign aide beat up a Feder aide with a cane last week. Wolf holds this seat by 12. REP RETENTION.

VA-11 (Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R), Davis (R) retiring): Tom Davis is one of the really good Republicans in the House, and wanted to step up to the Senate this year but was pushed aside for the more conservative Jim Gilmore by decisions by the State rules committee of the Republican party. Fairfax County Supervisor Gerry Connolly is a moderate Dem, and is facing virtual unknown businessman Keith Fimian. This is a clean pickup for the Dems, by about 11. FLIP DEM.

WA-08 (Burner (D) v. Reichert (R-inc)): Dave Reichert is a local Seattle celebrity, widely credited for capturing the Green River Killer in the 1990s. Darcy Burner is a Microsoft Executive  who narrowly lost this race in 2006. The Seattle press and political establishment is behind Reichert, but Burner has wide support in the blogosphere. This time, I think she narrowly wins this race. Burner by 2. FLIP DEM. 

WI-08 (Kagen (D-inc) v. Gard (R)): This race should be very close. Dr. Steve Kagen has been incendiary while in the House, cussing out VP Dick Cheney and generally being difficult for Republicans to get along with. John Gard is the minority leader in the Wisconsin House, and is a relatively young, amiable conservative. This year though, he's not going to stand a chance against Kagen, who will win by 7. DEM RETENTION. 

WV-02 (Barth (D) v. Capito (R-inc)): There were high hopes for this race when Sen. Robert Byrd's top aide, Anne Barth, declared for the seat currently held by moderate Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Barth hasn't shown a lot of flair at describing her differences with Capito, and West Virginia is one state that Obama doesn't have many coattails. She'll need a lot of ticket splitters to put her over the top, and I don't see it happening. Capito by 8. REP RETENTION.

WY-AL (Trauner (D) v. Lummis (R), Cubin (R) retiring): Gary Trauner will be a great representative if the people of Wyoming ever get over their Republican knee-jerk voting. Cynthia Lummis is a former State Treasurer, and is a compelling candidate as a conservative woman in this state that is seeing another conservative woman (albeit and unpopular one, Barb Cubin), retire. I want to call this race for Trauner, but I don't think he overcomes  the demographic problems inherent for a Wyoming Democrat. Lummis by 3, by boy would I like to be wrong on this one. REP RETENTION. 

Election Predictions, part 3 (take one)

The House of Representatives.

The House is notoriously hard to predict, as many races fall outside of general norms for the election. Local concerns, big personalities...these manifest themselves in House races far more than in state and national races.

That being said, I'm ready to make a number of House predictions. 

First, the Democrats who will lose their seats:

FL-16 (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Tom Rooney (R)). I like Tom Rooney. I'm a Steelers fan, so that family name does a lot for me. I dislike Tim Mahoney, even before he had lots of affairs. Rooney wins by 20. He'll be a solid, moderate GOP rep for this district (which there need to be more of frankly).  FLIP REP

TX-22 (Nick Lampson (D-inc) vs. Paul Olson (R)): This district is just too Republican, and no amount of Lampson's posturing to the right will overcome it's nature. Olson wins this by 5. FLIP REP

PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) vs. Lou Barletta (R)). This is the one D seat semi-upset I'll call. Kanjorski is a corrupt incumbent who's surprised by a strong challenger. Barletta's anti-immigration rants resonate in this rural PA district. Barletta by 2. FLIP REP

Dems lose 3. Not bad, actually, if we look at historic performance in any election, let alone a wave election.

I believe in commenting on everything. This will be long, but fun. These are ALL SEATS, not just those that will flip Dem, from Alaska to Nevada.

AK-AL (Berkowitz (D) v. Young (R-inc.): Berko by 10. Young isn't liked, and Berko will have a hard time holding this seat in 2010, but it's a sweet win at the moment. FLIP DEM

AL-02 (Bright (D) v. Love (R); Everett (R) retiring): Bright by 2. Bobby Bright is very conservative, and will challenge Heath Shuler for most conservative rep in the House. He fits this district well, and Love's primary challenger, Harri Anne Smith (R), endorsed Bright after the primary. This'll be close, but Bright pulls it out.  FLIP DEM

AL-05 (Griffin (D) v. Parker (R); Cramer (D) retiring): Bud Cramer is a conservative Dem. So is Parker Griffin. He'll beat businessman Wayne Parker by a nose to hold this district. DEM RETENTION

AZ-01 (Kilpatrick (D) v. Hay (R); Renzi (R) retiring): Rick Renzi is a corrupt bastard, and Mining Commissioner Sydney Hay is VERY conservative. Democrat Ann Kilpatrick takes this seat by 9. FLIP DEM

AZ-03 (Lord (D) v. Shaddegg (R-inc)): John Shaddegg is a conservative powerhouse in the House. Attorney Bob Lord will give him a run, but come up just short. If this seat flips, it's a 40+ gain in the House on Nov. 4. As of now, Shaddegg holds by 3. REP RETENTION

CA-04 (Brown (D) v. McClintock (R); Doolittle (R) retiring): John Doolittle is also corrupt, and Tom McClintock lives 400 miles south of this district, way down in Thousand Oaks, CA. Charlie Brown lost by 3 last time around, and the retired Colonel will put it away this time, as he leads in all recent polling. Brown by 4. FLIP DEM

CA-46 (Cook (D) v. Rohrbacher (R-inc)): Debbie Cook is really attractive (physically and in policy) but has raised little money and Dana Rohrbacher will hold his seat, winning by 9. REP RETENTION

CA-50 (Liebham (D) v. Bilbray (R-inc)): Brian Bilbray barely beat Dem. Francine Busby in a special election in 2006, and will barely hold his seat again, after an aggressive challenge by attorney and veteran Nick Liebham. This one will be closer than people think though; Bilbray by 3. REP RETENTION.

CO-04 (Markey (D) v. Musgrave (R-inc)): This will be a sweet victory. Homophobe Marilyn Musgrave has barely held this seat against weak opponents, and Dem Betsy Markey has run a great campaign. She'll win by double digits this year, and I'll be glad to see a sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment vanish into obscurity. Markey by 11. FLIP DEM.

CT-04 (Himes (D) v. Shays (R-inc)): This is a race I got wrong in 06, thinking Diane Farrell would boot out Chris Shays, who is now the last Republican House member in the Northeast. Rhodes Scholar and Nonprofit director Jim Himes will do what Diane couldn't. Himes by 2. FLIP DEM. 

FL-08 (Grayson (D) v. Keller (R-inc)): Ric Keller isn't a bad guy or a bad representative, people in FL-08 just don't like him that much. He has underperformed every year, and attorney Alan Grayson is running one of the 3 best campaigns of the cycle. He'll pull this out by 2. FLIP DEM.

FL-13 (Jennings (D) v. Buchanan (R-inc)): This is a race between two unpopular pols. Jennings is seen as a sore loser, suing after she lost by 369 votes in 2006, and Jennings is a wealthy used car salesman, and well, we know how popular they are. Buchanan holds his seat by 8. REP RETENTION. 

FL-18 (Taddeo (D) v. Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc)): Annette Taddeo is a great candidate running against a popular incumbent in a hard district. She should be the rep here, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will win again, albeit by a narrower margin. This is one race I'd love to be wrong in. Ros-Lehtinen by 6. REP RETENTION.

FL-21 (Martinez (D) v. L. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): The Diaz-Balart's are the only brothers in Congress. This year, both will lose. Lincoln by 6 in this race against Raul Martinez, longtime mayor of Hialeah. FLIP DEM.

FL-25 (Garcia (D) v. R. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): See above. Raul will lose to Joe Garcia. This makes Ileana Ros-Lehtinen the only non-white Republican in Congress. Garcia by 1: this is one of the closest races on election night. FLIP DEM.

GA-08 (Marshall (D-inc) v. Goddard (R)): Rick Goddard is a better ideological fit for this R+8 district, but Marshall's incumbency and Obama's strong showing will give him two more years. Marshall by 7. DEM RETENTION.

IA-04 (Greenwald (D) v. Latham (R-inc)): This is a reach pick for me. Tom Latham is very popular, but Obama runs very strong in Iowa (up 17 recently) and I think community organizer Becky Greenwald outperforms her polling. Greenwald by 2 in one of my upset specials. FLIP DEM.

ID-01 (Minnick (D) v. Sali (R-inc)): Bill Sali is not a bright man. The other Representative from Idaho, Mike Simpson, can't stand him, and Democrat Walt Minnick is a smart, conservative Dem. This will be the most Republican district (+19!) to flip election night. Dems were disappointed when Larry Grant lost this seat by 4 in 2006, Minnick will flip that result this year and win by 4. He probably won't hold the seat more than one term though. FLIP DEM.

IL-06 (Morganthaler (D) v. Roskam (R-inc)): No news here. Roskam shouldn't have won this race in 2006, but he did, and he'll hold this seat for a long time. Roskam by 14. REP RETENTION.

IL-10 (Seals (D) v. Kirk (R-inc)): Mark Kirk is one of the most liberal representatives in the House. That won't prevent Dan Seals, a veteran and attorney, from riding Obama's coattails to the House, and holding this seat for a VERY long time. Seals by 5. FLIP DEM.

IL-11 (Halvorsen (D) v. Ozinga (R), Weller (R-inc) retiring): Debbie Halvorsen is the majority leader of the IL House and is quite popular in her district. Marty Ozinga is a CEO in the concrete industry, and while a good candidate, can't overcome the swing nature of this district in an Obama election year. In a neutral year, I'd go out on a limb and say Ozinga wins. Not this year. Halvorsen by 10. FLIP DEM.

IL-18 (Callaghan (D) v. Schock (R), LaHood (R) retiring): Ray LaHood was a great Representative for central IL for the past 20 years. He's reasonable voice in the House that will be missed. 26 year old Aaron Schock is bat-shit insane. Too bad Dem Colleen Callaghan isn't a better candidate. Schock by a closer than expected margin, 6 points. REP RETENTION.

IN-03 (Montagano (D) v. Souder (R)): Mark Souder is not terribly popular in this blood-red district, and 28 year old attorney Mike Montagano has caught his sleeping. Souder will win, just barely, but if Montagano pulls this one out, expect Dems to win more than 40 seats on election night (like the Lord race in AZ-03). Souder by 4. REP RETENTION.

IN-09 (Hill (D-inc) v. Sodrel (R)): Rep. Baron Hill and trucking magnate Mike Sodrel have faced off in 3 straight elections, trading off this seat every two years. This year is different. Hill has a commanding lead, and Obama's push for Indiana means he wins by 13. DEM RETENTION.

KS-02 (Boyda (D-inc) v. Jenkins (R)): Lynn Jenkins is a very good candidate. Republicans just underestimated how solid a Representative Nancy Boyda would be. She won in an upset in 2006 by 3, and she'll win by double that this time. Boyda by 6. DEM RETENTION.

KY-02 (Boswell (D) v. Guthrie (R), Lucas (R) retiring): Dem David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie, two old friends in the state legislature, face off in this open seat. Boswell had a chance until the national parties got engaged. Now, Guthrie should win comfortably, I'm guessing by 7. REP RETENTION.

LA-04 (Carmouche (D) v. Fleming (R), Baker (R) retiring): Paul Carmouche is VERY conservative. In 40 of the states in the US he'd be a Republican. But in LA he's a Democrat, and he's going to have no trouble fending off Republican John Fleming for this rural district. Carmouche by 6 (in a Dec. 6 runoff, he won't crack 50% on Nov. 4). FLIP DEM. 

LA-06 (Cayazoux (D-inc) v. Cassidy (R) and Jackson (I)): Don Cayazoux is the perfect fit for this district, but State Senator Bill Cassidy wants to take back this Republican seat after businessman Woody Jenkins couldn't seal the deal in the May special election. He's assisted by Dem-turned-Independent Michael Jackson (no relation to the molester) who is polling in the high single digits. National prognosticators are undervaluing Cayazoux, he wins by 10. DEM RETENTION.

MD-06 (Kratovil (R) v. Harris (R), Gilcrest (R) retiring): Wayne Gilcrest, the most liberal Republican in the House, lost to conservative Andy Harris in a primary, and proceeded to endorse both Frank Kravotil, his Democratic opponent, and Barack Obama. Gilcrest is very popular in this eastern shore district, but Kratovil has a tough road to hoe. I'm tempted to give a nod to Frank, but I think Andy Harris just barely holds on. Harris by 2. REP RETENTION.

MI-07 (Schauer (D) v. Wahlberg (R-inc)): Freshman Rep. Tim Wahlberg beat one of the nicest men in the legislature in a primary in 2006, and he's far too conservative for this district. State Rep. Mark Schauer has led in every poll for 5 months. This one goes to Schauer by 7. FLIP DEM.

MI-09 (Peters (D) v. Knollenberg (R-inc)): Joe Knollenberg is a nice guy, but he's constantly underperforming this district. Honestly, Peters and Knollenberg will vote the same way on 90% of bills, leadership races excluded. Peters is leading in most public polls though, and after Joe won by only 6 last election against an opponent with no money, he's losing this race. Peters by 5. FLIP DEM.

MN-03 (Madia (D) v. Paulsen (R), Ramstad (R) retiring): Jim Ramstad is incredibly popular here, but State Rep. Erik Paulsen hasn't consolidated his support. Attorney and Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia beat State Sen. Terri Bonoff in a nail-biter primary race, and will probably win this seat by a very tight margin. Expect this to be a close race, with Madia winning by 1.5. FLIP DEM. 

MN-06 (Tinklenberg (D) v. Bachmann (R-inc)): Elwyn Tinklenberg has a great name that probably handicaps him politically. Michele Bachmann, though, is fucking nuts. She recently called for a McCarthy-esque inquisition of sitting US legislators to see who were "pro-America" and who were "anti-America." Yay fascism. Tinklenberg has no business winning this race, but gets the nod as luckiest Democrat in the country, and wins by 3. FLIP DEM.

MO-06 (Baker (D) v. Luetkemeyer (R), Hulshof (R) retiring): Kenny Hulshof is running a quixotic losing race for Governor against Jay Nixon, and leaves his seat open. It's a contrast of a pretty liberal woman, Judy Baker, against a very conservative man, Blaine Luetkemeyer. This is another one that I'm calling against the general grain; I think Judy Baker pulls this one out, and becomes a proud rural progressive voice in the US House. Baker by 1. FLIP DEM.

MO-09 (Barnes (D) v. Graves (R-inc)): This was supposed to be Dems #1 pick up in the early season of House races. Kay Barnes is a popular former mayor of Kansas City, and Sam Graves is an underwhelming Republican. Graves used a gay-baiting and race-baiting ad that seems to have worked, and he's comfortably ahead. Graves by 10. REP RETENTION.

NE-02 (Esch (D) v. Terry (R-inc)): Lee Terry is very scared of this race, a repeat from 2006. He's flaunting so-called "Obama-Terry" voters, while Democrat Jim Esch is taking advantage of new voter registration giving Dems an advantage over Republicans for the first time ever in this district. This one will be close, but I give the edge to the incumbent. I'd like to be wrong here though. Terry by 3. REP RETENTION.

NM-01 (Heinrich (D) v. White (R), Wilson (R) retiring): Heather Wilson lost her primary for the Senate seat in NM that Tom Udall is poised to win by 20, which leaves a very competitive open seat. Sheriff Darren White is one of the Republicans' best recruits, but Albuquerque City Councilmember Martin Heinrich has run a great race and leads in recent polling. In a neutral year, White wins this race by 5. This year, though, Heinrich by 4, and he'll hold this seat for a while. FLIP DEM.

NM-02 (Teague (D) v. Tinsley (R), Pearce (R) retiring): Steve Pearce is losing a Senate race at the moment, which leaves two oilmen, Harry Teague and Ed Tinsley, to vie for his old seat. In any other year, Ed wins this race by at least 10 points. With flagging funding though he had to pull his advertising with 2 weeks to go, and Teague has generous backing from the DCCC, with a conservative profile to boot. Teague by 3, in what should be considered a pretty big upset. FLIP DEM (this also gives NM an all-Dem congressional delegation).

NV-02 (Derby (D) v. Heller (R-inc)): This is a repeat of 2006. NV-02 is quite conservative, but University of Nevada regent Jill Derby ran a tough race against attorney Dean Heller. They're back for another go-round, and most polling puts Heller under 50%. Heller has the advantage, but I'm going to call this for Derby by 1. FLIP DEM.

NV-03 (Titus (D) v. Porter (R-inc)): Dina Titus lost a close race for Governor in 2006 (a decision many Nevadans are regretting, as Gov. Jim Gibbons has high disapproval ratings), but is back to take on Rep. Jon Porter after DA Robert Daskas dropped out in early 2008. Titus leads in most polling, and Porter hasn't been above 45% in six months. Titus by 5, with the House gaining a very progressive western woman. FLIP DEM.

Election Predictions, part 2

I almost forgot about how much I like predictions. It really started in 2006, when I called Dems winning 32 new House members (I was wrong on four races: I thought Lois Murphy would win in PA-06 and Diane Farrell in CT-04, and didn't see Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Carol Shea-Porter in NH-02). 

But we'll get to the House later, because that's a can of crazy that I can't quite deal with just yet. Final predictions will probably be up today, but maybe tomorrow. 

For now, the Senate.

I currently predict Democrats picking up 7 Senate seats, with 1 going to a run-off and 2 others falling just short. We're going to go in descending order, and I'm going to call percentages as well.

1/ Virginia (Open, Warner-R retiring): Ever since Mark Warner dropped out of the Pres race and decided to run for Senate, this has been a done deal. The question becomes how much he helps Obama and downticket Dem house races (02, 04, 05, and 11). Republican presidential also-ran Jim Gilmore is the sacrificial lamb.

Final: Warner 63, Gilmore 36

2/ Alaska (Stevens-R): Good ol' Ted Stevens was just convicted of 7 felonies the other day, so he's not going to win reelection. The question is how many Republicans still vote for the man who has the Anchorage Int'l Airport named after him. The answer: far too many. Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, will join the Democratic majority in the Senate. 

Final: Begich 60, Stevens 40

3/ New Mexico (Open, Domeinici-R retiring): New Mexico has 4 open seat races, since all 3 house members vied for the Senate seat that Pete D. is leaving after 36 years. Tom Udall is going to win this race, as Steve Pearce hasn't shown any appeal to moderate voters around the state, and may even lose his home congressional district (the 2nd). 

Final: Udall 59, Pearce 39

4/ Colorado (Open, Allard-R retiring): Wayne Allard would have lost this seat had he run for a third term, so he's bowing out gracefully and letting Rep. Mark Udall and former Rep. Bob Schaffer duke it out. This has been one of the nastiest races in the country, but it's broken fast for Udall in the past month after he posted modest 3-6 point leads for most of the year. This one won't be the nailbiter everyone though it would be. 

Final: Udall 56, Schaffer 43

5/ New Hampshire (Sununu-R): John Sununu won in 2002 after committing voter fraud (his top strategy guy just got out of jail after doing 4 years for telephone fraud, actually), and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is back for round 2. She's a good fit for NH, which has always been the most conservative Northeastern state, and Sununu has been much more partisan than his revered father (who was Bush I's Chief of Staff). This one has tightened a bit, but Shaheen will win.

Final: Shaheen 53, Sununu 44

6/ Oregon (Smith-R): There are 3 Udalls on the ballot (Gordon is Tom and Mark's cousin), but they won't go 3 for 3 this cycle. Smith is the exact ideological center of the House, but he's still too conservative for Oregon. He has rushed to the center this election, but Barack Obama himself just cut an add for State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who upon election will be one of the most progressive members of the Senate. Merkley holds a commanding 20-point lead among the 40% of Oregonians who have already voted, which means Smith needs to win 62% of the outstanding vote. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Final: Merkley 52, Smith 43, Brownlow 4 (this might be too conservative...Merkley could easily win by 12)

7/ North Carolina (Dole-R): This race has gotten nasty. Incumbent Elizabeth Dole has recently called her challenger, State Senator Kay Hagan, godless for a recent fundraiser hosted by a prominent athiest. Hagan's response was swift and harsh. Hagan has run the best Senate campaign of the cycle in my opinion, and has made the race a referenda on "absentee Elizabeth", who still doesn't have a North Carolina residence. This race is going to be close, but Hagan squeaks it out. 

Final: Hagan 49, Dole 47, Cole 4

8/ Georgia (Chambliss-R): Saxby Chambliss is my second least favorite member of the Senate (after crazy Jim Inhofe). His abhorrent campaign against war hero Max Cleland in 2002 (where he morphed the triple-amputee Cleland into a photo of Osama bin Laden) has gotten him a special place in hell, in my opinion. This race was on NO ONE'S radar until Chambliss voted for the bailout, after which State Rep. Jim Martin began pulling even. Georgia law requires a candidate to get 50% of the vote, which I don't think either will at the moment. I think Chambliss finishes narrowly ahead, but we'll go to a December 4 runoff, which will see a myriad of operatives on both sides descend on Georgia. Martin will win that race.

Final: Chambliss 47, Martin 46, Buckley 6

9/ Minnesota (Coleman-R): This race is sad for me. On one hand, I think the Senate needs moderate Republicans, and Sen. Norm Coleman is one of the 4-5 most moderate of them. On the other, Minnesota deserves a progressive Senator in former Sen. Paul Wellstone's old seat. Comedian Al Franken has been a polarizing candidate, and I think would make a solid Senator but wouldn't be able to hold the seat for more than one term. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkely will get over 10% of the vote, more from Franken than Coleman, and it'll push Coleman just barely over the top. I bet Rep. Betty McCullom is regretting not running for this seat, which she would have won by 10 points easily.

Final: Coleman 43, Franken 40, Barkely 15

10/ Louisiana (Landreiu-D): This was the best Republican pick up opportunity when the cycle started. Landreiu is very moderate, but still too liberal for Louisiana's white population, and has never won by large margins in her prior two races. She's facing recent Republican John Neely Kennedy, who just changed parties in 2007 to run against her (he's the State Treasurer). Kennedy has underwhelmed as a candidate and Landreiu has receieved a ton of Republican endorsements. She'll win this race pretty easily. 

Final: Landreiu 52, Kennedy 46

11/ Kentucky (McConnell-R): This race should never have been close. Mitch McConnell is the minority leader of the Senate, and businessman Bruce Lunsford emerged from a Democratic primary with little support; after all, he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher for Gov. in 2003 and lost a primary for Governor in 2007 to current Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford pulled a Jim Martin after McConnell voted for the bailout though, and has closed the gap to within 6 points. That will be where the final tally comes down, methinks. 

Final: McConnell 53, Lunsford 46

12/ Mississippi (Wicker-R): Democrats saw a chance at this seat when appointed Senator Roger Wicker filled Trent Lott's old seat, and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove stepped up to the plate to challenge him. Musgrove is fairly unpopular in MS though (he lost reelection in 2002 to Haley Barbour), and Wicker has consolidated a high amount of the state's white voters, with which he's running even with John McCain. Musgrove needs to run 10 points ahead of Obama if he wants to win the state, though increased black turnout will keep it close.

Final: Wicker 53, Musgrove 47

So that's a roundup of the closest races come election day. Democrats will hold 56 seats, Independents who caucus with the Dems 2, and Republicans will hold 42. 

After the election, though, expect Joe Lieberman (I-CT) to be courted heavily by the Republicans after Democrats remove him as chair of the Homeland Security Committee. And expect Democrats  to try and convince current Republicans Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and  Arlen Specter (R-PA) to switch parties. I suspect Lieberman will leave the caucus, but that Dems won't get any party switches, but stranger things have happened.

Election Predictions, part 1

Alright, it's time for some predictions about Tuesday night. But before we go there, let's start with a little history.

I've been on this campaign for almost 20 of the 21 months it's been going. I started out supporting New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who I thought was the most thoughtful and experienced of the candidates, but who soon disappointed me by not articulating anything resembling a coherent position on almost any issue. That fairytale lasted about 2 months. 

I then got over my overwhelming dislike of Hillary Clinton after watching her throughout the debates and stump speeches. I've talked about my perceptual shift toward Hillary before, so I won't go there again, but needless to say I felt something about her that led me to believe she'd make a great president. I still feel that today. 

The day Hillary dropped out, I sent a check to Barack Obama and haven't looked back. His choice of Joe Biden (of whom I'm a HUGE fan, I mean huge) was a defining moment for me. I trust his judgment and I think he'll make a damn fine president.

Tuesday night, at 8:55 est, Barack Obama will be declared the president-elect of the United States.

I'm not normally overconfident about these things. In 2004, I thought Kerry was going to lose, and I called Bush in 2000 as well (granted I was a young Republican back then, but I digress). I believe not only that Obama will win this election, but that he'll win it handily. I think a landslide is anything over 350 electoral votes, and right now I'll project that Obama wins at least that many.

How you ask?

There are a group of SAFE democratic states. They are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,  Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. These states add up to 190 electoral votes. Only 80 more to go. 

The "normal" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire will all vote for Obama by 10+ points. Of that group, Michigan and Iowa will approach 60% voting for Obama. There are 74 more electoral votes, putting us at 264. 6 more votes to go.

If I am predicting the next largest margin for Obama, I'll go with Virginia, which I think Obama will win by 9. There's 13 more votes, and Obama has won the election with 277 electoral votes. 

But we're not done. Oh no. The next states are those that Obama will win by 4 to 8 points. Here we have Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and the great state of Colorado. This brings us to 338 electoral votes.

Now you might think I'm getting greedy. Nope. We still have a couple more. 

Obama will win several "red" states by between .1 and 3 points. They are: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Yes, you read that right. Georgia. I believe that Obama will win the state by an almost miniscule margin, due to the high numbers of black voters turning out for the first time and a slight overperformance in white voters than John Kerry (who got 29% of the white vote in 2004). This gets Obama to 390 electoral votes. That's his final tally, I think, come the end of the night. 

Next come the states that McCain will narrowly squeak out, from .1 to 3 percent. They are: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska-2 (which awards EVs by congressional district in addition to the statewide winner). This is 17 EVs.

Then states he'll win by between 4 and 9 points. South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, and somewhat surprisingly, Mississippi (36% of registered voters are black, and breaking 92-3 to Obama at the moment). This takes us to 37 electoral votes.

McCain has a few states he'll win with between 10 and 20 points. Those are: South Carolina, Nebraska (the rest), Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Louisiana. He's now got 101 votes. 

Now for the McCain blowout states, any with 20 or more points. These are the really red states: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Not to mention Oklahoma, which he should win by 35 (his biggest margin of the night, I think, just beating out ID and UT). 

This gives McCain 148 electoral votes.

So my end of the night prediction is: Obama/Biden 390, McCain/Palin 148. 

Thoughts?