Isn't this fun? Let's start in New Hampshire and go all the way to Wyoming, shall we? Before we get there I forgot one Dem pickup from the last list:
FL-24 (Kosmas (D) v. Feeney (R-inc)): Tom Feeney has been tied pretty clearly to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and had to release an ad apologizing for this early in this campaign cycle. Recent polls put former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas up by 20. That's a bit optimistic, but she'll win this race by double digits. Kosmas by 12. FLIP DEM.
NH-02 (Shea-Porter (D-inc) v. Bradley (R)): This is a rematch of the biggest upset in 2006, which Shea-Porter trailed by ten coming into election day and won by 4. Former Rep. Jeb Bradley is a compelling candidate, but New Hampshire has gone VERY blue the past cycle and should hold it's course this election. Shea-Porter by 6. DEM RETENTION.
NJ-03 (Adler (D) v. Myers (R), Saxton (R) retiring): Jim Saxton was a moderate Rep, and this district is ancestrally Republican. Even with a Democratic tide, Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers isn't a terrible candidate, and State Senator John Adler isn't the most exciting guy around. Needless to say, Obama's margins in this district matter, though some solid ticket-splitting will help Myers keep it close. Adler by 3. FLIP DEM.
NJ-04 (Shulman (D) v. Smith (R-inc)): Chris Smith is very conservative, being the only northeastern Republican to vote against renewing the Voting Rights Act in 2006. He's facing Rabbi Dennis Shulman, who would be the first Rabbi and the first blind person to serve in Congress. This race is a favorite of the blogosphere, but won't come together at the end. Smith by 7. REP RETENTION
NJ-07 (Stender (D) v. Lance (R), Ferguson (R) retiring): Mike Ferguson barely held off State Assemblywoman Linda Stender in 2006, and retired this year rather than face her again. State Senator Leonard Lance is a popular figure, and has kept this race close (someone in his family has served NJ in the legislature every decade since the 1810s). Stender hasn't stopped running for this seat since she lost, though, and should pull it out come election day. Stender by 2. FLIP DEM.
NC-08 (Kissell (D) v. Hayes (R-inc)): Social Studies teacher Larry Kissell lost by 329 votes in 2006 in a race that was on no one's radar. Robin Hayes is a very wealthy and somewhat popular Representative, but Kissell leads in all recent polling. He'll win this race by 5, another seat that Obama's coattails will bring Democrats in the House. FLIP DEM.
NY-13 (McMahon (D) v. Straniere (R), Fossella (R) retiring): Vito Fossella would've kept this, the only Republican seat in New York City, had he not gotten an DUI on the way to see his mistress and illegitimate daughter last year. But he did do those things, so now he's retiring and Democrat Mike McMahon, a city councilman, will easily beat Robert Straniere, who owns a hot dog vending conglomerate. Straniere hasn't even been endorsed by the Staten Island Republican Party. Not a good sign. McMahon by 22. FLIP DEM.
NY-25 (Maffei (D) v. Sweetland (R), Walsh (R) retiring): Dan Maffei almost beat Rep. Jim Walsh in 2006, and never stopped campaigning. Walsh was down in private polling early this year and decided to retire, and businessman Dale Sweetland never caught fire. Maffei will win this race handily, I bet by 13. FLIP DEM.
NY-26 (Kryzan (D) v. Lee (R), Reynolds (R) retiring): Attorney Alice Kryzan was the surprise primary winner here, as the two other major contenders (Veteran Jon Powers and businessman Jack Davis) beat each other to the point of lunacy. She faces businessman Chris Lee, who has run a solid race in this Republican district. This will be one that the Dems narrowly lose on election night, and kick themselves for 2 years about. Lee by 4. REP RETENTION.
NY-29 (Massa (D) v. Kuhl (R-inc)): Shotgun Randy Kuhl got his nickname by pointing a gun at his wife during a dinner party in the 1980s. The good people of New York apparently didn't think this was a character flaw, and elected him to the House. Veteran Eric Massa has run a solid campaign, and will take this seat, especially as Kuhl has said some incendiary stuff the past few weeks (notably, that Democrats want Americans to "suffer" if elected). Massa by 3. FLIP DEM.
OH-01 (Dreihaus (D) v. Chabot (R-inc)): Steve Chabot is a solid moderate Republican, and has fended off challenges from solid candidates in the past. State Rep. Steve Dreihaus, a West Point graduate, provides him his stiffest challenge yet. Chabot's age (he's 81) and Dreihaus' turnout operation in this district, which is 26% black, should push him over the top. Dreihaus by 1. FLIP DEM.
OH-02 (Wulsin (D) v. Schmidt (R-inc)): Mean Jean Schmidt is just about as crazy as can be, calling veteran Jack Murtha a "coward" on the floor of the House in her first ever speech to the body. She'll never win comfortably in this R+13 district, but should win this race against second-time challenger Dr. Vic Wulsin. Wulsin's just not as compelling a candidate as could be found here, and doesn't sport very high favorable ratings (though they're still better than Schmidt's). Mean Jean by 4. REP RETENTION.
OH-07 (Neuhardt (D) v. Austria (R), Hobson (R) retiring): State Senator Steve Austria is the Republican's single best recruit of the cycle, and his moderate image provides him a good chance of winning this Republican-leaning district and holding it for a very long time if he wants. Democrat Sharon Neuhardt has run a spirited race though, and will keep this one fairly close. Austria by 8. REP RETENTION.
OH-14 (O'Neill (D) v. LaTourette (R-inc)): Steve LaTourette has held this Cleveland-area district comfortably for the past few terms, but Judge Bill O'Neill has given him a run for his money this cycle. This is a seat that could flip in a major wave election, but I think O'Neill falls short (though ends up closer than many would think). LaTourette by 6. REP RETENTION.
OH-15 (Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R), Pryce (R) retiring): Deborah Pryce is retiring, and County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy has led State Senator Steve Stivers (try saying that three times fast) in all recent polling. Kilroy has high unfavorables, but if she wins this go-round she can get her district shored-up in the next round of redistricting in 2010, when Ohio will lose a seat. Kilroy by 5. FLIP DEM.
OH-16 (Boccieri (D) v. Schuring (R), Regula (R) retiring): Ralph Regula is incredibly popular in this tossup district, but State Senator John Boccieri has cast a very moderate profile (anti-abortion and pro-labor), whereas State Rep. Kirk Schuring has been lambasted by the right for voting for a number of tax increases in the legislature. Boccieri will win this race by 6, though it was originally supposed to be more competitive. FLIP DEM.
OR-05 (Schrader (D) v. Erikson (R), Hooley (D) retiring): Darlene Hooley almost always underperformed in this district, and this year decided to call it a career. Gubernatorial aide Kurt Schrader consolidated Democratic support, while failed Gubernatorial candidate Mike Erikson dealt with a nasty primary and revelations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion several years ago. This one won't be close. Schrader by 11. DEM RETENTION.
PA-03 (Dahlkemper (D) v. English (R-inc)): "Philly the Hutt" as he's called, due to his striking resemblance to one Jabba the Hutt, is in for the race of his career against Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper. Dahlkemper's personal opposition to abortion has allowed her to tack right in this socially-conservative PA district, and she'll win in what three months ago would've been considered a surprising upset. Even English's own polls have him down near 43%. Not a good place to be. Dahlkemper by 5. FLIP DEM.
PA-04 (Altmire (D-inc) v. Hart (R)): This is my grandparent's district, and my Republican grandma sums up Jason Altmire well: "he just kinda gets stuff done and doesn't focus on crazy social issue stuff." Altmire is a conservative Dem, and took over for ideologue Melissa Hart, who's back for another go round. It seems Altmire has consolidated support in Allegheny County though, and should win by 10. DEM RETENTION.
PA-12 (Murtha (D-inc) v. Russell (R)): Jack Murtha recently called his district racist, which apparently people don't like very much. He's now in a very competitive race with pilot Bill Russell, but I think Murtha holds on, if by the skin of his teeth (compared to other cycles). Murtha by 9. DEM RETENTION.
SC-01 (Ketner (D) v. Brown (R-inc)): Henry Brown is very conservative, and South Carolina tends to like people like that. But he's facing a stiff challenge from the most unlikely source: an openly gay, progressive woman in Linda Ketner. She's poured $700,000 of her own money into this race, and polling shows her down 5. I'd love to see her pull this out, but I think Brown hangs on by 3. REP RETENTION.
SC-02 (Miller (D) v. Wilson (R-inc)): In successive years, Joe Wilson was named the nicest member of Congress and the meanest member of Congress. I don't quite know how that happens, but Iraq veteran Rob Miller is challenging him in this very red district. Miller is a good candidate, but he's still too liberal for this district. Wilson by 11. REP RETENTION.
TX-07 (Skelly (D) v. Culberson (R-inc)): John Culberson isn't terribly popular in this super Republican district, and wind power executive Michael Skelly has been a prolific fundraiser and solid campaigner. He's not going to win this race, but his challenge is helping turn Texas just a little bit bluer it would seem. Culberson by 7. REP RETENTION.
TX-10 (Doherty (D) v. McCaul (R-inc)): This is upset special number 2. Larry Joe Doherty is a judge on TV's "Texas Justice" and has been running hard for this seat for over a year. Mike McCaul is very conservative, but hasn't quite hit a note with his district, seeing as he's never gotten more than 57% here. I'm going to call a crazy one: Doherty by less than 1. FLIP DEM.
VA-02 (Nye (D) v. Drake (R-inc)): Thelma Drake held off a challenge from Phil Kellam, and Glenn Nye is the next one up to come shockingly close to beating Ms. Drake but not quite getting there. Drake is never going to win by many in this district, but Nye's campaign hasn't had the outreach outside of Norfolk to make this one a victory. Drake by 3. REP RETENTION.
VA-05 (Perriello (D) v. Goode (R-inc)): Final upset special. Dem Tom Perriello is a Yale-educated lawyer, and he's going up against former Democrat Virgil Goode, who last was seen railing against Rep. Keith Ellison being sworn in on the Koran in 2006 (Ellison is the US' first Muslim Representative). This district combines super-liberal Charlottesville and super conservative Southern Virginia farm country. Perriello is going to win this one in a surprising squeaker, by less than 1. FLIP DEM.
VA-10 (Feder (D) v. Wolf (R-inc)): This is another rematch, but unlike most of them it won't be close. Judy Feder has proven to be a weak candidate, and longtime Rep. Frank Wolf is pretty beloved in this district, even after a campaign aide beat up a Feder aide with a cane last week. Wolf holds this seat by 12. REP RETENTION.
VA-11 (Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R), Davis (R) retiring): Tom Davis is one of the really good Republicans in the House, and wanted to step up to the Senate this year but was pushed aside for the more conservative Jim Gilmore by decisions by the State rules committee of the Republican party. Fairfax County Supervisor Gerry Connolly is a moderate Dem, and is facing virtual unknown businessman Keith Fimian. This is a clean pickup for the Dems, by about 11. FLIP DEM.
WA-08 (Burner (D) v. Reichert (R-inc)): Dave Reichert is a local Seattle celebrity, widely credited for capturing the Green River Killer in the 1990s. Darcy Burner is a Microsoft Executive who narrowly lost this race in 2006. The Seattle press and political establishment is behind Reichert, but Burner has wide support in the blogosphere. This time, I think she narrowly wins this race. Burner by 2. FLIP DEM.
WI-08 (Kagen (D-inc) v. Gard (R)): This race should be very close. Dr. Steve Kagen has been incendiary while in the House, cussing out VP Dick Cheney and generally being difficult for Republicans to get along with. John Gard is the minority leader in the Wisconsin House, and is a relatively young, amiable conservative. This year though, he's not going to stand a chance against Kagen, who will win by 7. DEM RETENTION.
WV-02 (Barth (D) v. Capito (R-inc)): There were high hopes for this race when Sen. Robert Byrd's top aide, Anne Barth, declared for the seat currently held by moderate Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Barth hasn't shown a lot of flair at describing her differences with Capito, and West Virginia is one state that Obama doesn't have many coattails. She'll need a lot of ticket splitters to put her over the top, and I don't see it happening. Capito by 8. REP RETENTION.
WY-AL (Trauner (D) v. Lummis (R), Cubin (R) retiring): Gary Trauner will be a great representative if the people of Wyoming ever get over their Republican knee-jerk voting. Cynthia Lummis is a former State Treasurer, and is a compelling candidate as a conservative woman in this state that is seeing another conservative woman (albeit and unpopular one, Barb Cubin), retire. I want to call this race for Trauner, but I don't think he overcomes the demographic problems inherent for a Wyoming Democrat. Lummis by 3, by boy would I like to be wrong on this one. REP RETENTION.
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