Election Predictions, part 2

I almost forgot about how much I like predictions. It really started in 2006, when I called Dems winning 32 new House members (I was wrong on four races: I thought Lois Murphy would win in PA-06 and Diane Farrell in CT-04, and didn't see Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Carol Shea-Porter in NH-02). 

But we'll get to the House later, because that's a can of crazy that I can't quite deal with just yet. Final predictions will probably be up today, but maybe tomorrow. 

For now, the Senate.

I currently predict Democrats picking up 7 Senate seats, with 1 going to a run-off and 2 others falling just short. We're going to go in descending order, and I'm going to call percentages as well.

1/ Virginia (Open, Warner-R retiring): Ever since Mark Warner dropped out of the Pres race and decided to run for Senate, this has been a done deal. The question becomes how much he helps Obama and downticket Dem house races (02, 04, 05, and 11). Republican presidential also-ran Jim Gilmore is the sacrificial lamb.

Final: Warner 63, Gilmore 36

2/ Alaska (Stevens-R): Good ol' Ted Stevens was just convicted of 7 felonies the other day, so he's not going to win reelection. The question is how many Republicans still vote for the man who has the Anchorage Int'l Airport named after him. The answer: far too many. Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, will join the Democratic majority in the Senate. 

Final: Begich 60, Stevens 40

3/ New Mexico (Open, Domeinici-R retiring): New Mexico has 4 open seat races, since all 3 house members vied for the Senate seat that Pete D. is leaving after 36 years. Tom Udall is going to win this race, as Steve Pearce hasn't shown any appeal to moderate voters around the state, and may even lose his home congressional district (the 2nd). 

Final: Udall 59, Pearce 39

4/ Colorado (Open, Allard-R retiring): Wayne Allard would have lost this seat had he run for a third term, so he's bowing out gracefully and letting Rep. Mark Udall and former Rep. Bob Schaffer duke it out. This has been one of the nastiest races in the country, but it's broken fast for Udall in the past month after he posted modest 3-6 point leads for most of the year. This one won't be the nailbiter everyone though it would be. 

Final: Udall 56, Schaffer 43

5/ New Hampshire (Sununu-R): John Sununu won in 2002 after committing voter fraud (his top strategy guy just got out of jail after doing 4 years for telephone fraud, actually), and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is back for round 2. She's a good fit for NH, which has always been the most conservative Northeastern state, and Sununu has been much more partisan than his revered father (who was Bush I's Chief of Staff). This one has tightened a bit, but Shaheen will win.

Final: Shaheen 53, Sununu 44

6/ Oregon (Smith-R): There are 3 Udalls on the ballot (Gordon is Tom and Mark's cousin), but they won't go 3 for 3 this cycle. Smith is the exact ideological center of the House, but he's still too conservative for Oregon. He has rushed to the center this election, but Barack Obama himself just cut an add for State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who upon election will be one of the most progressive members of the Senate. Merkley holds a commanding 20-point lead among the 40% of Oregonians who have already voted, which means Smith needs to win 62% of the outstanding vote. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Final: Merkley 52, Smith 43, Brownlow 4 (this might be too conservative...Merkley could easily win by 12)

7/ North Carolina (Dole-R): This race has gotten nasty. Incumbent Elizabeth Dole has recently called her challenger, State Senator Kay Hagan, godless for a recent fundraiser hosted by a prominent athiest. Hagan's response was swift and harsh. Hagan has run the best Senate campaign of the cycle in my opinion, and has made the race a referenda on "absentee Elizabeth", who still doesn't have a North Carolina residence. This race is going to be close, but Hagan squeaks it out. 

Final: Hagan 49, Dole 47, Cole 4

8/ Georgia (Chambliss-R): Saxby Chambliss is my second least favorite member of the Senate (after crazy Jim Inhofe). His abhorrent campaign against war hero Max Cleland in 2002 (where he morphed the triple-amputee Cleland into a photo of Osama bin Laden) has gotten him a special place in hell, in my opinion. This race was on NO ONE'S radar until Chambliss voted for the bailout, after which State Rep. Jim Martin began pulling even. Georgia law requires a candidate to get 50% of the vote, which I don't think either will at the moment. I think Chambliss finishes narrowly ahead, but we'll go to a December 4 runoff, which will see a myriad of operatives on both sides descend on Georgia. Martin will win that race.

Final: Chambliss 47, Martin 46, Buckley 6

9/ Minnesota (Coleman-R): This race is sad for me. On one hand, I think the Senate needs moderate Republicans, and Sen. Norm Coleman is one of the 4-5 most moderate of them. On the other, Minnesota deserves a progressive Senator in former Sen. Paul Wellstone's old seat. Comedian Al Franken has been a polarizing candidate, and I think would make a solid Senator but wouldn't be able to hold the seat for more than one term. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkely will get over 10% of the vote, more from Franken than Coleman, and it'll push Coleman just barely over the top. I bet Rep. Betty McCullom is regretting not running for this seat, which she would have won by 10 points easily.

Final: Coleman 43, Franken 40, Barkely 15

10/ Louisiana (Landreiu-D): This was the best Republican pick up opportunity when the cycle started. Landreiu is very moderate, but still too liberal for Louisiana's white population, and has never won by large margins in her prior two races. She's facing recent Republican John Neely Kennedy, who just changed parties in 2007 to run against her (he's the State Treasurer). Kennedy has underwhelmed as a candidate and Landreiu has receieved a ton of Republican endorsements. She'll win this race pretty easily. 

Final: Landreiu 52, Kennedy 46

11/ Kentucky (McConnell-R): This race should never have been close. Mitch McConnell is the minority leader of the Senate, and businessman Bruce Lunsford emerged from a Democratic primary with little support; after all, he supported Republican Ernie Fletcher for Gov. in 2003 and lost a primary for Governor in 2007 to current Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford pulled a Jim Martin after McConnell voted for the bailout though, and has closed the gap to within 6 points. That will be where the final tally comes down, methinks. 

Final: McConnell 53, Lunsford 46

12/ Mississippi (Wicker-R): Democrats saw a chance at this seat when appointed Senator Roger Wicker filled Trent Lott's old seat, and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove stepped up to the plate to challenge him. Musgrove is fairly unpopular in MS though (he lost reelection in 2002 to Haley Barbour), and Wicker has consolidated a high amount of the state's white voters, with which he's running even with John McCain. Musgrove needs to run 10 points ahead of Obama if he wants to win the state, though increased black turnout will keep it close.

Final: Wicker 53, Musgrove 47

So that's a roundup of the closest races come election day. Democrats will hold 56 seats, Independents who caucus with the Dems 2, and Republicans will hold 42. 

After the election, though, expect Joe Lieberman (I-CT) to be courted heavily by the Republicans after Democrats remove him as chair of the Homeland Security Committee. And expect Democrats  to try and convince current Republicans Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and  Arlen Specter (R-PA) to switch parties. I suspect Lieberman will leave the caucus, but that Dems won't get any party switches, but stranger things have happened.