Election Predictions, part 3 (take one)

The House of Representatives.

The House is notoriously hard to predict, as many races fall outside of general norms for the election. Local concerns, big personalities...these manifest themselves in House races far more than in state and national races.

That being said, I'm ready to make a number of House predictions. 

First, the Democrats who will lose their seats:

FL-16 (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Tom Rooney (R)). I like Tom Rooney. I'm a Steelers fan, so that family name does a lot for me. I dislike Tim Mahoney, even before he had lots of affairs. Rooney wins by 20. He'll be a solid, moderate GOP rep for this district (which there need to be more of frankly).  FLIP REP

TX-22 (Nick Lampson (D-inc) vs. Paul Olson (R)): This district is just too Republican, and no amount of Lampson's posturing to the right will overcome it's nature. Olson wins this by 5. FLIP REP

PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) vs. Lou Barletta (R)). This is the one D seat semi-upset I'll call. Kanjorski is a corrupt incumbent who's surprised by a strong challenger. Barletta's anti-immigration rants resonate in this rural PA district. Barletta by 2. FLIP REP

Dems lose 3. Not bad, actually, if we look at historic performance in any election, let alone a wave election.

I believe in commenting on everything. This will be long, but fun. These are ALL SEATS, not just those that will flip Dem, from Alaska to Nevada.

AK-AL (Berkowitz (D) v. Young (R-inc.): Berko by 10. Young isn't liked, and Berko will have a hard time holding this seat in 2010, but it's a sweet win at the moment. FLIP DEM

AL-02 (Bright (D) v. Love (R); Everett (R) retiring): Bright by 2. Bobby Bright is very conservative, and will challenge Heath Shuler for most conservative rep in the House. He fits this district well, and Love's primary challenger, Harri Anne Smith (R), endorsed Bright after the primary. This'll be close, but Bright pulls it out.  FLIP DEM

AL-05 (Griffin (D) v. Parker (R); Cramer (D) retiring): Bud Cramer is a conservative Dem. So is Parker Griffin. He'll beat businessman Wayne Parker by a nose to hold this district. DEM RETENTION

AZ-01 (Kilpatrick (D) v. Hay (R); Renzi (R) retiring): Rick Renzi is a corrupt bastard, and Mining Commissioner Sydney Hay is VERY conservative. Democrat Ann Kilpatrick takes this seat by 9. FLIP DEM

AZ-03 (Lord (D) v. Shaddegg (R-inc)): John Shaddegg is a conservative powerhouse in the House. Attorney Bob Lord will give him a run, but come up just short. If this seat flips, it's a 40+ gain in the House on Nov. 4. As of now, Shaddegg holds by 3. REP RETENTION

CA-04 (Brown (D) v. McClintock (R); Doolittle (R) retiring): John Doolittle is also corrupt, and Tom McClintock lives 400 miles south of this district, way down in Thousand Oaks, CA. Charlie Brown lost by 3 last time around, and the retired Colonel will put it away this time, as he leads in all recent polling. Brown by 4. FLIP DEM

CA-46 (Cook (D) v. Rohrbacher (R-inc)): Debbie Cook is really attractive (physically and in policy) but has raised little money and Dana Rohrbacher will hold his seat, winning by 9. REP RETENTION

CA-50 (Liebham (D) v. Bilbray (R-inc)): Brian Bilbray barely beat Dem. Francine Busby in a special election in 2006, and will barely hold his seat again, after an aggressive challenge by attorney and veteran Nick Liebham. This one will be closer than people think though; Bilbray by 3. REP RETENTION.

CO-04 (Markey (D) v. Musgrave (R-inc)): This will be a sweet victory. Homophobe Marilyn Musgrave has barely held this seat against weak opponents, and Dem Betsy Markey has run a great campaign. She'll win by double digits this year, and I'll be glad to see a sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment vanish into obscurity. Markey by 11. FLIP DEM.

CT-04 (Himes (D) v. Shays (R-inc)): This is a race I got wrong in 06, thinking Diane Farrell would boot out Chris Shays, who is now the last Republican House member in the Northeast. Rhodes Scholar and Nonprofit director Jim Himes will do what Diane couldn't. Himes by 2. FLIP DEM. 

FL-08 (Grayson (D) v. Keller (R-inc)): Ric Keller isn't a bad guy or a bad representative, people in FL-08 just don't like him that much. He has underperformed every year, and attorney Alan Grayson is running one of the 3 best campaigns of the cycle. He'll pull this out by 2. FLIP DEM.

FL-13 (Jennings (D) v. Buchanan (R-inc)): This is a race between two unpopular pols. Jennings is seen as a sore loser, suing after she lost by 369 votes in 2006, and Jennings is a wealthy used car salesman, and well, we know how popular they are. Buchanan holds his seat by 8. REP RETENTION. 

FL-18 (Taddeo (D) v. Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc)): Annette Taddeo is a great candidate running against a popular incumbent in a hard district. She should be the rep here, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will win again, albeit by a narrower margin. This is one race I'd love to be wrong in. Ros-Lehtinen by 6. REP RETENTION.

FL-21 (Martinez (D) v. L. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): The Diaz-Balart's are the only brothers in Congress. This year, both will lose. Lincoln by 6 in this race against Raul Martinez, longtime mayor of Hialeah. FLIP DEM.

FL-25 (Garcia (D) v. R. Diaz-Balart (R-inc)): See above. Raul will lose to Joe Garcia. This makes Ileana Ros-Lehtinen the only non-white Republican in Congress. Garcia by 1: this is one of the closest races on election night. FLIP DEM.

GA-08 (Marshall (D-inc) v. Goddard (R)): Rick Goddard is a better ideological fit for this R+8 district, but Marshall's incumbency and Obama's strong showing will give him two more years. Marshall by 7. DEM RETENTION.

IA-04 (Greenwald (D) v. Latham (R-inc)): This is a reach pick for me. Tom Latham is very popular, but Obama runs very strong in Iowa (up 17 recently) and I think community organizer Becky Greenwald outperforms her polling. Greenwald by 2 in one of my upset specials. FLIP DEM.

ID-01 (Minnick (D) v. Sali (R-inc)): Bill Sali is not a bright man. The other Representative from Idaho, Mike Simpson, can't stand him, and Democrat Walt Minnick is a smart, conservative Dem. This will be the most Republican district (+19!) to flip election night. Dems were disappointed when Larry Grant lost this seat by 4 in 2006, Minnick will flip that result this year and win by 4. He probably won't hold the seat more than one term though. FLIP DEM.

IL-06 (Morganthaler (D) v. Roskam (R-inc)): No news here. Roskam shouldn't have won this race in 2006, but he did, and he'll hold this seat for a long time. Roskam by 14. REP RETENTION.

IL-10 (Seals (D) v. Kirk (R-inc)): Mark Kirk is one of the most liberal representatives in the House. That won't prevent Dan Seals, a veteran and attorney, from riding Obama's coattails to the House, and holding this seat for a VERY long time. Seals by 5. FLIP DEM.

IL-11 (Halvorsen (D) v. Ozinga (R), Weller (R-inc) retiring): Debbie Halvorsen is the majority leader of the IL House and is quite popular in her district. Marty Ozinga is a CEO in the concrete industry, and while a good candidate, can't overcome the swing nature of this district in an Obama election year. In a neutral year, I'd go out on a limb and say Ozinga wins. Not this year. Halvorsen by 10. FLIP DEM.

IL-18 (Callaghan (D) v. Schock (R), LaHood (R) retiring): Ray LaHood was a great Representative for central IL for the past 20 years. He's reasonable voice in the House that will be missed. 26 year old Aaron Schock is bat-shit insane. Too bad Dem Colleen Callaghan isn't a better candidate. Schock by a closer than expected margin, 6 points. REP RETENTION.

IN-03 (Montagano (D) v. Souder (R)): Mark Souder is not terribly popular in this blood-red district, and 28 year old attorney Mike Montagano has caught his sleeping. Souder will win, just barely, but if Montagano pulls this one out, expect Dems to win more than 40 seats on election night (like the Lord race in AZ-03). Souder by 4. REP RETENTION.

IN-09 (Hill (D-inc) v. Sodrel (R)): Rep. Baron Hill and trucking magnate Mike Sodrel have faced off in 3 straight elections, trading off this seat every two years. This year is different. Hill has a commanding lead, and Obama's push for Indiana means he wins by 13. DEM RETENTION.

KS-02 (Boyda (D-inc) v. Jenkins (R)): Lynn Jenkins is a very good candidate. Republicans just underestimated how solid a Representative Nancy Boyda would be. She won in an upset in 2006 by 3, and she'll win by double that this time. Boyda by 6. DEM RETENTION.

KY-02 (Boswell (D) v. Guthrie (R), Lucas (R) retiring): Dem David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie, two old friends in the state legislature, face off in this open seat. Boswell had a chance until the national parties got engaged. Now, Guthrie should win comfortably, I'm guessing by 7. REP RETENTION.

LA-04 (Carmouche (D) v. Fleming (R), Baker (R) retiring): Paul Carmouche is VERY conservative. In 40 of the states in the US he'd be a Republican. But in LA he's a Democrat, and he's going to have no trouble fending off Republican John Fleming for this rural district. Carmouche by 6 (in a Dec. 6 runoff, he won't crack 50% on Nov. 4). FLIP DEM. 

LA-06 (Cayazoux (D-inc) v. Cassidy (R) and Jackson (I)): Don Cayazoux is the perfect fit for this district, but State Senator Bill Cassidy wants to take back this Republican seat after businessman Woody Jenkins couldn't seal the deal in the May special election. He's assisted by Dem-turned-Independent Michael Jackson (no relation to the molester) who is polling in the high single digits. National prognosticators are undervaluing Cayazoux, he wins by 10. DEM RETENTION.

MD-06 (Kratovil (R) v. Harris (R), Gilcrest (R) retiring): Wayne Gilcrest, the most liberal Republican in the House, lost to conservative Andy Harris in a primary, and proceeded to endorse both Frank Kravotil, his Democratic opponent, and Barack Obama. Gilcrest is very popular in this eastern shore district, but Kratovil has a tough road to hoe. I'm tempted to give a nod to Frank, but I think Andy Harris just barely holds on. Harris by 2. REP RETENTION.

MI-07 (Schauer (D) v. Wahlberg (R-inc)): Freshman Rep. Tim Wahlberg beat one of the nicest men in the legislature in a primary in 2006, and he's far too conservative for this district. State Rep. Mark Schauer has led in every poll for 5 months. This one goes to Schauer by 7. FLIP DEM.

MI-09 (Peters (D) v. Knollenberg (R-inc)): Joe Knollenberg is a nice guy, but he's constantly underperforming this district. Honestly, Peters and Knollenberg will vote the same way on 90% of bills, leadership races excluded. Peters is leading in most public polls though, and after Joe won by only 6 last election against an opponent with no money, he's losing this race. Peters by 5. FLIP DEM.

MN-03 (Madia (D) v. Paulsen (R), Ramstad (R) retiring): Jim Ramstad is incredibly popular here, but State Rep. Erik Paulsen hasn't consolidated his support. Attorney and Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia beat State Sen. Terri Bonoff in a nail-biter primary race, and will probably win this seat by a very tight margin. Expect this to be a close race, with Madia winning by 1.5. FLIP DEM. 

MN-06 (Tinklenberg (D) v. Bachmann (R-inc)): Elwyn Tinklenberg has a great name that probably handicaps him politically. Michele Bachmann, though, is fucking nuts. She recently called for a McCarthy-esque inquisition of sitting US legislators to see who were "pro-America" and who were "anti-America." Yay fascism. Tinklenberg has no business winning this race, but gets the nod as luckiest Democrat in the country, and wins by 3. FLIP DEM.

MO-06 (Baker (D) v. Luetkemeyer (R), Hulshof (R) retiring): Kenny Hulshof is running a quixotic losing race for Governor against Jay Nixon, and leaves his seat open. It's a contrast of a pretty liberal woman, Judy Baker, against a very conservative man, Blaine Luetkemeyer. This is another one that I'm calling against the general grain; I think Judy Baker pulls this one out, and becomes a proud rural progressive voice in the US House. Baker by 1. FLIP DEM.

MO-09 (Barnes (D) v. Graves (R-inc)): This was supposed to be Dems #1 pick up in the early season of House races. Kay Barnes is a popular former mayor of Kansas City, and Sam Graves is an underwhelming Republican. Graves used a gay-baiting and race-baiting ad that seems to have worked, and he's comfortably ahead. Graves by 10. REP RETENTION.

NE-02 (Esch (D) v. Terry (R-inc)): Lee Terry is very scared of this race, a repeat from 2006. He's flaunting so-called "Obama-Terry" voters, while Democrat Jim Esch is taking advantage of new voter registration giving Dems an advantage over Republicans for the first time ever in this district. This one will be close, but I give the edge to the incumbent. I'd like to be wrong here though. Terry by 3. REP RETENTION.

NM-01 (Heinrich (D) v. White (R), Wilson (R) retiring): Heather Wilson lost her primary for the Senate seat in NM that Tom Udall is poised to win by 20, which leaves a very competitive open seat. Sheriff Darren White is one of the Republicans' best recruits, but Albuquerque City Councilmember Martin Heinrich has run a great race and leads in recent polling. In a neutral year, White wins this race by 5. This year, though, Heinrich by 4, and he'll hold this seat for a while. FLIP DEM.

NM-02 (Teague (D) v. Tinsley (R), Pearce (R) retiring): Steve Pearce is losing a Senate race at the moment, which leaves two oilmen, Harry Teague and Ed Tinsley, to vie for his old seat. In any other year, Ed wins this race by at least 10 points. With flagging funding though he had to pull his advertising with 2 weeks to go, and Teague has generous backing from the DCCC, with a conservative profile to boot. Teague by 3, in what should be considered a pretty big upset. FLIP DEM (this also gives NM an all-Dem congressional delegation).

NV-02 (Derby (D) v. Heller (R-inc)): This is a repeat of 2006. NV-02 is quite conservative, but University of Nevada regent Jill Derby ran a tough race against attorney Dean Heller. They're back for another go-round, and most polling puts Heller under 50%. Heller has the advantage, but I'm going to call this for Derby by 1. FLIP DEM.

NV-03 (Titus (D) v. Porter (R-inc)): Dina Titus lost a close race for Governor in 2006 (a decision many Nevadans are regretting, as Gov. Jim Gibbons has high disapproval ratings), but is back to take on Rep. Jon Porter after DA Robert Daskas dropped out in early 2008. Titus leads in most polling, and Porter hasn't been above 45% in six months. Titus by 5, with the House gaining a very progressive western woman. FLIP DEM.