Election Predictions, part 1

Alright, it's time for some predictions about Tuesday night. But before we go there, let's start with a little history.

I've been on this campaign for almost 20 of the 21 months it's been going. I started out supporting New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who I thought was the most thoughtful and experienced of the candidates, but who soon disappointed me by not articulating anything resembling a coherent position on almost any issue. That fairytale lasted about 2 months. 

I then got over my overwhelming dislike of Hillary Clinton after watching her throughout the debates and stump speeches. I've talked about my perceptual shift toward Hillary before, so I won't go there again, but needless to say I felt something about her that led me to believe she'd make a great president. I still feel that today. 

The day Hillary dropped out, I sent a check to Barack Obama and haven't looked back. His choice of Joe Biden (of whom I'm a HUGE fan, I mean huge) was a defining moment for me. I trust his judgment and I think he'll make a damn fine president.

Tuesday night, at 8:55 est, Barack Obama will be declared the president-elect of the United States.

I'm not normally overconfident about these things. In 2004, I thought Kerry was going to lose, and I called Bush in 2000 as well (granted I was a young Republican back then, but I digress). I believe not only that Obama will win this election, but that he'll win it handily. I think a landslide is anything over 350 electoral votes, and right now I'll project that Obama wins at least that many.

How you ask?

There are a group of SAFE democratic states. They are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,  Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. These states add up to 190 electoral votes. Only 80 more to go. 

The "normal" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire will all vote for Obama by 10+ points. Of that group, Michigan and Iowa will approach 60% voting for Obama. There are 74 more electoral votes, putting us at 264. 6 more votes to go.

If I am predicting the next largest margin for Obama, I'll go with Virginia, which I think Obama will win by 9. There's 13 more votes, and Obama has won the election with 277 electoral votes. 

But we're not done. Oh no. The next states are those that Obama will win by 4 to 8 points. Here we have Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and the great state of Colorado. This brings us to 338 electoral votes.

Now you might think I'm getting greedy. Nope. We still have a couple more. 

Obama will win several "red" states by between .1 and 3 points. They are: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Yes, you read that right. Georgia. I believe that Obama will win the state by an almost miniscule margin, due to the high numbers of black voters turning out for the first time and a slight overperformance in white voters than John Kerry (who got 29% of the white vote in 2004). This gets Obama to 390 electoral votes. That's his final tally, I think, come the end of the night. 

Next come the states that McCain will narrowly squeak out, from .1 to 3 percent. They are: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska-2 (which awards EVs by congressional district in addition to the statewide winner). This is 17 EVs.

Then states he'll win by between 4 and 9 points. South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, and somewhat surprisingly, Mississippi (36% of registered voters are black, and breaking 92-3 to Obama at the moment). This takes us to 37 electoral votes.

McCain has a few states he'll win with between 10 and 20 points. Those are: South Carolina, Nebraska (the rest), Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Louisiana. He's now got 101 votes. 

Now for the McCain blowout states, any with 20 or more points. These are the really red states: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Not to mention Oklahoma, which he should win by 35 (his biggest margin of the night, I think, just beating out ID and UT). 

This gives McCain 148 electoral votes.

So my end of the night prediction is: Obama/Biden 390, McCain/Palin 148. 

Thoughts?

SO I was on CNN

That's right. CNN does official watch parties of the debates, and I was at the Democratic one. Justin Henceroth and I were apparently on twice, once before the debates while phonebanking and once during the debates when the cameras looked into the crowd of the watch party. It was a really cool experience, watching the debates with cameras and flashes constantly in your eyes. 

That being said, what another solid performance for Sen. Obama. McCain is desperately running out of time. His remarks on Ayers were unnecessarily over the top, and his answers on choice should scare even many anti-abortion voters. Anyone who thinks that women should have the right to an abortion if their life is at risk should be given serious pause after McCain railed against the "life and health of the mother" exceptions in many state abortion codes. 

I won't get into that mess right now, but expect my Colorado ballot guide on Sunday. All 14 of the Amendments. That's right, 14. I'll even tell you which Colorado Supreme Court Justice doesn't deserve retention. Why? Because I'm kind of a dork. But that's part of the reason I'm here...I do the dorky work so you don't have to.

Cheers!

Obama v. McCain

Those of you who know me know that I love to rail about politics, whether they're local, state, national or international. I have sort of refrained from posting them here, but I'm going to be doing more political writing in the next few weeks, at least until November 4. 

So I figured I would start not with the past 18 months of the campaign, but with Friday's debate, which the American people and political pundits saw in two completely different lights. Pundits called it a draw, giving the edge to whichever candidate they were more closely aligned with on the partisan spectrum (except Leslie Sanchez, who remains the most worthless political commentator on any network, and I'm counting Bill O'Reilly and Lou Dobbs in that mix). 

The American people, in general, saw the debate as an Obama victory, which isn't bad in what was supposedly McCain's strongest debate format (since it was 70% foreign policy). Independents gave him the edge by almost 20, and were mostly impressed with his answers on the bailout package and how it will affect the middle class along with his calls to refocus international efforts in Afghanistan rather than Iraq. The debate probably didn't move many into the "strong Obama" or "strong McCain" categories, but it did show a few things about the state of the campaign that I think are important to note.

When I watched the debate, I couldn't help paying the most attention to two things: body language and CNN's awesome real-time approval-disapproval dial, which is my favorite TV widget of the cycle. In these debates, with the exception of 2-3 statements that get replayed again and again OR a giant gaffe that came unexpectedly, any of us could probably guess what's being said. The truly important aspects are how the candidates look in comparison  to one another and to popular conceptions of what it means to be president, and how the public agrees or disagrees with the ways they are framing the issues.

Obama looked poised. He didn't look confident at first, mainly because he's not good behind a podium. It gives him an opportunity to have a pad of paper, and his professorial background makes him scribble all over it, which shows him as detached and uninterested in what his opponent was saying. He had a better entrance, addressing McCain as "John, it's a pleasure to see you" though McCain said nothing in return (probably thinking they weren't mic'ed yet...whoops).

McCain looked physically uncomfortable on stage, though he is a more natural debater than public speaker, and this format was probably beneficial to him since it gave more time for spontaneity, which he's better at than Obama is (as a function of his knowledge of laws and process, not natural ability). He scored the only discernible laugh-out-loud moment when he asked Jim Lehrer "What, didn't you think I could hear him" after Obama was told to talk to John directly. He still does his creepy smile thing, though, and he has a penchant for looking condescending when Obama talks policy. 

As far as the real-time approval ratings went, they weren't very surprising. The most negative term for the debate was "subcommittee", fitting, since this is a change election and that sounds too insider-baseball for 90% of the American public. The best results for McCain came during his personal stories. For Obama, a lot of them came when he said he agreed with John, because it makes him look pragmatic and more bipartisan. He also got good marks when he said "You're wrong John" or "That's not true". Calling McCain out toughens him up in the minds of many undecided voters, and McCain just doesn't respond, which allows the frame of "McCain makes things up" to sink it further and create some doubt in the minds of the "moveable 10" (or the 10% of voters, like my Nana, who actually vote for both Dem and Rep candidates).

There are a couple of moments that stick out. Obama's best play strategically was also his most humanizing moment, and something that anyone with a military connection heard loud and clear. After McCain told a story of a soldier whose mother gave him a bracelet to wear on the campaign trail, he said that he was running to ensure that this soldier "didn't die in vain". Obama shot right back, saying "I have a bracelet too, John", which was unexpected and risky, but his story about a mother who asked him to make sure that no one else had to feel the pain she felt at losing a son was touching and had the right amount of gravitas to answer McCain's frame about "winning in Iraq". It was a great two minutes for those of us who are debaters, because it's what we strive for. Not necessarily winning every position, but making sure our opponents don't win the ones they should.

And McCain should have won this debate. Obama is not a good debater (he was the fourth best Democratic candidate at the debates, after Biden, Clinton, and Edwards, in that order). Right now, McCain needed a game-changing moment, and now has to hope that Sarah Palin does spectacularly at the VP debates. Obama minimized McCain's greatest advantage, his public trust on foreign policy, and came across as reasonable, determined and calm. McCain looked angry, condescending at times, and unwilling to change his mind. 

Look for the polling in the next 2-3 days to show Obama leading about 52-43 in all of the major tracking polls (but only pay attention to the three day averages, please! Lower margins of error and they self-correct single-day storylines and blips in the media).