Election Predictions, part 1

Alright, it's time for some predictions about Tuesday night. But before we go there, let's start with a little history.

I've been on this campaign for almost 20 of the 21 months it's been going. I started out supporting New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who I thought was the most thoughtful and experienced of the candidates, but who soon disappointed me by not articulating anything resembling a coherent position on almost any issue. That fairytale lasted about 2 months. 

I then got over my overwhelming dislike of Hillary Clinton after watching her throughout the debates and stump speeches. I've talked about my perceptual shift toward Hillary before, so I won't go there again, but needless to say I felt something about her that led me to believe she'd make a great president. I still feel that today. 

The day Hillary dropped out, I sent a check to Barack Obama and haven't looked back. His choice of Joe Biden (of whom I'm a HUGE fan, I mean huge) was a defining moment for me. I trust his judgment and I think he'll make a damn fine president.

Tuesday night, at 8:55 est, Barack Obama will be declared the president-elect of the United States.

I'm not normally overconfident about these things. In 2004, I thought Kerry was going to lose, and I called Bush in 2000 as well (granted I was a young Republican back then, but I digress). I believe not only that Obama will win this election, but that he'll win it handily. I think a landslide is anything over 350 electoral votes, and right now I'll project that Obama wins at least that many.

How you ask?

There are a group of SAFE democratic states. They are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,  Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. These states add up to 190 electoral votes. Only 80 more to go. 

The "normal" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire will all vote for Obama by 10+ points. Of that group, Michigan and Iowa will approach 60% voting for Obama. There are 74 more electoral votes, putting us at 264. 6 more votes to go.

If I am predicting the next largest margin for Obama, I'll go with Virginia, which I think Obama will win by 9. There's 13 more votes, and Obama has won the election with 277 electoral votes. 

But we're not done. Oh no. The next states are those that Obama will win by 4 to 8 points. Here we have Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and the great state of Colorado. This brings us to 338 electoral votes.

Now you might think I'm getting greedy. Nope. We still have a couple more. 

Obama will win several "red" states by between .1 and 3 points. They are: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Yes, you read that right. Georgia. I believe that Obama will win the state by an almost miniscule margin, due to the high numbers of black voters turning out for the first time and a slight overperformance in white voters than John Kerry (who got 29% of the white vote in 2004). This gets Obama to 390 electoral votes. That's his final tally, I think, come the end of the night. 

Next come the states that McCain will narrowly squeak out, from .1 to 3 percent. They are: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska-2 (which awards EVs by congressional district in addition to the statewide winner). This is 17 EVs.

Then states he'll win by between 4 and 9 points. South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, and somewhat surprisingly, Mississippi (36% of registered voters are black, and breaking 92-3 to Obama at the moment). This takes us to 37 electoral votes.

McCain has a few states he'll win with between 10 and 20 points. Those are: South Carolina, Nebraska (the rest), Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Louisiana. He's now got 101 votes. 

Now for the McCain blowout states, any with 20 or more points. These are the really red states: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Not to mention Oklahoma, which he should win by 35 (his biggest margin of the night, I think, just beating out ID and UT). 

This gives McCain 148 electoral votes.

So my end of the night prediction is: Obama/Biden 390, McCain/Palin 148. 

Thoughts?

SO I was on CNN

That's right. CNN does official watch parties of the debates, and I was at the Democratic one. Justin Henceroth and I were apparently on twice, once before the debates while phonebanking and once during the debates when the cameras looked into the crowd of the watch party. It was a really cool experience, watching the debates with cameras and flashes constantly in your eyes. 

That being said, what another solid performance for Sen. Obama. McCain is desperately running out of time. His remarks on Ayers were unnecessarily over the top, and his answers on choice should scare even many anti-abortion voters. Anyone who thinks that women should have the right to an abortion if their life is at risk should be given serious pause after McCain railed against the "life and health of the mother" exceptions in many state abortion codes. 

I won't get into that mess right now, but expect my Colorado ballot guide on Sunday. All 14 of the Amendments. That's right, 14. I'll even tell you which Colorado Supreme Court Justice doesn't deserve retention. Why? Because I'm kind of a dork. But that's part of the reason I'm here...I do the dorky work so you don't have to.

Cheers!

21 days...

The election is almost here. Wowsers. In 3 weeks we'll have a new president, 12 new senators (hopefully), 50 new representatives and tons of new laws on the books around the country...

For me, this time is bittersweet. The past 2 years have been like political cocaine for me, since I can spend days reading about politics without end and gladly spend years focused on a single campaign. But all good things have to come to an end. 

The next three weeks will consist of election predictions. I'll do a presidential one every week, and Senate and important House races at least once before election day. In 2006, I was off by 1 seat in the House and 1 in the Senate, so my track record isn't too shabby. 

This is my favorite part of the election season. Get ready.